Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Melissa McAuliffe who wrote (1643)	3/6/1998 2:45:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

Melissa, The tone of your posts are worrying me. Keep in mind you never make a profit on a stock until you sell it. It seems to me that you are making the classic mistake of "auguring" in on your investment. It does not matter where the stocks have been -- it only matters where they are going. Where do you think VNTV/SEBL/CLFY will be at the end of this year? At the end of 1999? The risk/reward ratio is quite different for all of them: SEBL has a lofty valuation and significantly increased risks from a people/customer/technology/business model integration perspective. They can 1x charge to hide things for a while, but you could see a 40% or greater slash to the market cap on a miss. In addition, SEBL used to be nearly free of meaningful competition, not so in CIS. SEBL does have superior marketing presence in SFA, but I suspect that technology integration is much more critical than marketing fluff as you move from sales automation to customer interaction. VNTV has a moderate valuation relative to its underlying growth, but has most (if not all) if the necessary components in place for continued solid execution. VNTV has a strong management team, an integrated product line and a solid pipeline for growth and new target areas to market in. CLFY is cheap on a price to sales basis and if they execute there's substantial operating margin upside. Management has historically been weak from a marketing perspective and a lot of investors have washed their hands of the stock. Now they've got a new CEO and some demonstrated strength in field service/dispatch and logistics. The stock is priced as if it is expecting continued weakness yet the company has invested heavily in adding sales infrastructure and is generating decent revenue growth. The institutional community may be turning cautious on SEBL. Even though analysts are writing positively on the deal they are speaking with far more caution. All that matters for investors is stock price. All three stocks may be up by the end of the year, but I bet that VNTV and CLFY are more likely to be bigger winners than SEBL by December 31st. You can reduce your risk by investing in several names if you believe in the space. Is it worth the risk to move your scopus into sebl? TD