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To: Bearded One who wrote (17943)3/6/1998 5:49:00 PM
From: Reginald Middleton  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24154
 
Nice graphs and all, but we all know that the market in general wants/needs a 800 pound gorilla. It mitigates the risk of a massive expenditure in IT. Why don't you think NSCP landed as much enterprise business as they thought they would? No company can justify standardizing their business on NSCP technology when another competitor can come along in a year and splinter the investment. Risk in finance = Deviation from expected return. Risk is exactly what is mitigated by a strong market leader, the 800 pound gorilla. That is why the PC business is is growing faster than the UNIX business, mainframe business, PDA business, etc. Wintel provides stability and minimzes deviation from expected return = risk. Therefore the market is willing to pay a premium for the market leader despite the fact that there may be better technology available for less money. Supply-demand curves oversimplify the issue. The promise of risk aversion has value, therefore that value goes for a premium on top of technical fortitude. This is a major reason why marketign and PR are so important in the software industry.

Your macro economic graphs fail to take into consideration the reality of technolocy economics.

RCM
rcmfinancial.com