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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles P. Hubbard who wrote (4305)	3/6/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: Market Tracker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Charles, I concur completely. - ".. I have been watching markets a long time, and I have never seen anything as insane as this. It will end in panic, but who knows when." The present market defies description (and gravity), and may be in the early stages of a blow-off top. Trading volume will tell us when that time has come. When THE TOP occurs, trading volume will surpass the record levels set this past October, and that should prove to be the confirming clue as to when. Many "investors" will be in for the financial shock of their relatively short lives. Their first real example of a true market correction should prove to be a doozy. I think Asia lit the fuse, I just don't know how long the damn thing is. " I just hope it doesn't take the world economy down with it, but it probably will." I feel the key here is the banks, both domestic and international. If Chase, JPM, Citicorp, et.al. prove vulnerable, the above scenario is not out of the question, but the current strength of the economy will most-likely pad the fall somewhat. It should still prove to be a very bitter pill to swallow however. Today I sold a very healthy portion of mutual funds, LAFFX, MITTX, which have been in my family for more than 45 years, solely to preserve capital. I have kept 10% to play with, but the prudent money should begin seeking safety shortly. Anyone fully-invested over the near-term seems IMO to be accepting too high a degree of risk level, commensurate with the future expected gains they are seeking. The risk to reward ratio just ain't there. Just another old man's opinion, MT

To: Charles P. Hubbard who wrote (4305)	3/8/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: Bob Trocchi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Charles, et All: Interesting statistic in today's world. The following below is a little "snippert" I took from Barrons. Bob T. >>One nifty measure of how spirited a rise tech stocks enjoyed P.I. (pre-Intel) is that the market value of Microsoft has swelled by $40 billion since the beginning of 1998 -- which is more than GDP will likely increase in the first quarter, assuming 3% growth. Put another way, Microsoft has added more in market cap in a bit over two months than the $7 trillion economy of the U.S. will add in the opening three months of the year.<< interactive.wsj.com