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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Brickman who wrote (4307)	3/6/1998 7:54:00 PM
From: sammy levy	Respond to of 18691

To ALL: The concept of ,buy low-sell high, reminded me of an old joke.So if u don't mind, here it comes- Two old highschool friends meet after 40 years.One-a math professor,living on a paycheck,the other- millionaire. After the preliminaries,the prof.asks his friend - "How did u make all this money? u couldn't add 2+2 in school." "Easy",replies the friend,"I buy for $10. and sell for $50.make my 5% and I am happy." you may read into it whatever u like :-)

To: John Brickman who wrote (4307)	3/6/1998 9:37:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

>Please tell me this week is over, and we will return to some sanity next week. I dearly wanted to short some YHOO today but chickened out ... its bad enough to have AOL and BFIT. At least ETEC dropped some this week and I got some KRY this morning at 5 7/16. Did you get into this? I wonder what happened on the close ... at mkt close it was showing 5 with 4 15/16bid and 5 ask. now it shows 5 1/4 close with 5 1/8 by 6.< JB: The whole thing has a funny feeling but the truth is [I even I who should know better is learning the hard way] that market timing is extremely difficult. IMO we have a better tha 60% chance of having a 5% or more correction before March is over but this cannot be warranted the minute enough people believe this may be a likely scenario the selling will start. In the medium term i.e., before the end of the year I believe the market is going to take a big hit because of a significant downward revision in 98 eranings and earnigns growth rates. Your paragraph reflects almost perfectly the way I feel myself. Like in sport games you need to have the guts to come from behind. I have made mistakes long and short but have seen very few instances in which things don't turn my way if I give time a chance. I usually give positions up to a year to develop. The mistake I made with AOL and BFIT is that I violated my own rules on diversificantion in regards to the maximum % I allocate to a single position. Still I will hold and posibly scale back when the price drop. I may sacrifice significantly higher potential returns but I will go back to my strategy. At this point IMO it is foolish to cover at a loss. Pancho