Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Grosz who wrote (10681)	3/7/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Michael: I recall that post - YUP VERY good thing you did not pick ATML. Boy what happened there? As getgo says ATML makes LSI look good. However I thought I mentioned that ADI was the better bet longer term (I have since developed an increased fondness for LSI as you can tell by the more positive tone in recent posts! Both ADI and LSI are good - ADI has a more stable and certain growth pattern - LSI is still fraught with greater risk. But the rewards for LSI may be worth it. ADI's better for the steady growth portfolio.) techstocks.com (of course if you sold at 27 you're golden.) ---- RE: The whole PC market. Utter confusion about what's going on. On the one hand the size of the earnings declines bothers me. When's the last time CPQ had a break-even quarter? Maybe the DEC thing is costing them. What about INTC - a 20% reduction in earnings plus a 10% drop in revenue. MOT confused. Even though my first sense is INTC was caught off guard with the sub 1000 PC thing, doesn't CPQ have a sizable presence in the sub 1000 PC market. I thought they did. This means that the weak PC demand thing may be right (yet again flipflopping). Or perhaps there is strong no very strong demand for lower end PCs and not as robust demand for higher end PCs. That would make that techweb article about CPQ inventory believable. But then this would not agree with DELL's viewpoint that they are doing fine. (DELL is higher end.) GROANNNN.... Nothing makes sense. Maybe inventory adjustment... Something's wrong. Just what I don't know. This always happens with infection points - one signal says stop the other says go. Remember networkers early 1997 - same kind of thing. ASND stop, COMS stop, COMS go, BAY go, CSCO always go, USRX stop... --- contd...

To: Michael Grosz who wrote (10681)	3/7/1998 1:49:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

continuation of previous post: However techs and semis perform very well in a booming economy. We have a boomer as today's data supported. Also a strong US market will offset SEA. The problem is will the market kill off just the PC related companies or take all the semis with it? The market reacted well today considering MOT's announcement. Last month when I got into LSI I knew we had a small window and I felt LSI would come back. Well LSI did not go up as fast as I had hoped and the window proved to be smaller than I had hoped. What the heck are these guys reporting warnings so early. We still have a month in the quarter to go. I would have expected warnings to begin around mid - next week. Any way I'm not certain about the impact on LSI near term. The biggest thing is the lack of volume in the stock. My guess is that the day we have a large volume day LSI will go up 2+ points at least on that one day alone. The problem with the low volume however is that LSI may go down quite a bit in a total market meltdown, which I don't see in the near term inspite of all the economic problems around. The other thing to really keep in mind is that LSI is very definitely a 2nd tier semistock in the eyes of the market. The days when LSI was a leader are gone. No thanks in small part to the poor revenue showing. However I'm using this to my advantage to buy when I can get the chance or have the money and hold when "all around are losing their heads". Keeping that longer term perspective and waiting for earnings. --- contd...

To: Michael Grosz who wrote (10681)	3/7/1998 1:50:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

continuing form last post: Finally, and of the utmost importance to me, even though the markets are acting wildly, there will be a huge slowdown in capital spending this year. Last year's cap. spending, esp. with that accounting error!, was also not robust. Put the 2 together and even with the line width shrinks, demand and capacity are coming closer together for the semis, perhaps much much faster than the ASPs are indicating right now. That means that ASPs are going up and these stocks will explode in the next few quarters (on the upside!). [Proof positive (for now!) would be MUs strength in this semi stock shellacking period.] Load up on the best names or in LSI's case in those with the best prospects and stay a bit away from the PC related companies until the picture becomes clearer. At some point people have to realize that the semis over and past the next 2 quarters are in for good times not bad and all the bad news and then some is in them right now. (That's why I like the bunching of the bad news announcements. everyone do it now!) That's the way I see it right now (irrespective of what Mr. Market wishes to say right now.) ---- Shane.