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To: yard_man who wrote (5527)	3/7/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 8002

barry, not only do you miss the upside but you risk 5-10 times the downside. however, rd is already diversified to the downside so no big deal. the bottom line is that many people wouldn't see a new paradigm if it slapped them upside the head. if pcs were selling for $1.50 with a cup of starbucks they would say "no big deal, pcs have always declined in value." this is different. the pcs declined as newer and faster pcs took the top spot. the marginal speed difference in the past has been substantive. now the high end machines are tanking. the marginal difference between the low end machines - p166 for example - and the high end machines - pii 333 for example - is a mute point as a p166 will do just fine for 98% of all applications. the p166 box doesn't leave much of a margin for everyone. supply growth continues to outperform demand growth this is a mania. cognitive dissodence is the norm. mu will do well because supply will slow. amat will do well b/c supply will grow. the boxmakers will do well b/c components will stay cheap due to over supply. it all adds up to a $3 bill. when this plays out i sincerely doubt that most will have beat the long term average for stock market gains. they simply don't know why their stocks are going up so they won't know when they will go down. btw, intel is no longer the tech bellweather. msft is. why? intel disappointed and bellweathers don't disappoint ;-)