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Technology Stocks : Western Digital (WDC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve goldman who wrote (8856)	3/7/1998 4:15:00 PM
From: Harold S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

Excellent Post Steve and exactly why I have been slowly averaging down since the mid 17's. When this baby finally flies it will be fast and far as it always is in this sector.

To: steve goldman who wrote (8856)	3/7/1998 5:13:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11057

WDC, with an expected return of 18%, ranks #10 on my risk-adjusted ROI spreadsheet, ahead of about 30 other stocks including other drive vendors. I see a ... 70% upside case for 16 -> 25 within 12 months = 56% 30% downside case for 16 -> 14 within 12 months = -13% I.E., downside would mean buying at 16 and getting trapped unable to bail higher than 14 within 12 months. I'll be putting 5% of capital into WDC anywhere around 16, and holding for up to a year. As you can see, my strategy calls for seeking value plays with good risk-adjusted ROIs and distributing my capital in proportion to confidence level and return. By risk- adjusted, I mean averaging a cautiously optimistic upside against a aggressively pessimistic downside based on my own estimated confidence level in the information I have available. I see WDC as a buy anywhere near 16. Fundamentally, I see a very good chance (70%) for greatly increased drives sales based on two new (one cyclical) sources of demand: 1) Drive upgrades to >6Gb drives. Using a Win9x/WinNT5 dualboot system has immediately taught me that a 200Mhz system is fine, but the 2-3Gb drives I have will have to be replaced. I think there are >20M PCs out there in the same situation ... come Win9x/WinNT5 time, we'll see a major spike in drive upgrading. I haven't seen this comment in any of the drive threads ... but I think there's a major demand spike on the way. I see 20M PCs out there ready to run NT5 Workstation which I like better than Win9x (I develop MS shrinkwrap drivers for both OS'es) ... I see a LOT of people wanting to "try" NT5 but not commit to it ... a large fraction of these folks will be heading out to buy a larger drive. I think it would be a cool move for WDC to bundle a drivecopy util ... add a solution touch to their commodity. I don't really expect to want faster CPU until Merced time. Even a 450Mhz P2 is worth less to me that 4x disk or 10x WAN. IE, last year I wanted, in order: faster CPU, faster WEB, more disk This year I will want, in order: faster web, more disk, faster CPU. 2) Very small drives in cameras and other portable accessories. What is WDC doing in the 1" drive area? Jay