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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (12825)	3/11/1998 4:42:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 77400

I rapped some fingers some time ago on the predictions about the future development of the Cisco stock price. The numbers as such were no problem for me (interested reader can go back to siliconinvestor.com. What bothered me, was that eventually we ended up with something like a nice fat if-then-else statement of the sort if crazy bull market then 167 else if reasonable then 117 # most likely else 83 # Titanic scenario Well, the reference above has another prediction of the same kind, which read: if best case then 200+ else 122 else tanking at 70 My comment "...which means, we dont have a clue" was not exactly warmly greeted. I got a hint I should come back when my destructive keyboard had something more constructive to say. Well, I'm taking a calculated risk (g) What I have available is a two-year interval of price data.Thus I will not dare to say anything beyond now+2 years. This does not mean I'm chicken, I'm just common-sense. Rule 1: Cisco price corridor width (long-term) is 14% (95% probability channel) Rule 2: price growth rate is 57% pa Rule 3: when market decides different, 1 and 2 dont hold anymore ...continued next message DJ