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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (14755)	3/7/1998 1:36:00 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Thread-- Didn't all the indices gain something like eight percent in just the month of February. What sort of a gain would it have to have been to be considered a blow off for that short a period of time? As far as a major correction, I've become increasingly convinced (as I posted once before) that this market is just going to whipsaw now. No big 1000 point Dow drops, just down a few hundred on the worst days, and whipsawing back to reclaim the ground within weeks if not days. All this B.S. about DOW 9000 ought to be put to rest now that we have had three warnings in a row, that has killed the bull, but not enough damage to start a bear. So, it seems to me that this has become a supremely easy environment for daytraders, mom and pop with their funds will just tread water this year. Here are my three reasons the market will NOT crash: When I advise people to get out of the market they say "I am in for the long term" , or, the mutual fund manager takes care of that. (--Of course that answer makes me feel even more bearish!) I think most of the money "invested" out there is not on margin, it probably is real savings from boomers, unlike before the Great Crash. I think maybe I have over-estimated the willingness of people to transer their funds to money markets, even though it is so easy, 98% of people are convinced that they cannot market time, and that if the market drops ten percent they will just send more money. Most times the market crashes, corrects, or goes into a bear market, the economy is also slowing down. Unemployment is very low--this is the best indicator I know to judge the economy. I think you have to force yourself to ignore Asia. Now, all that said, is there a chance that the fund managers themselves will panick? My gosh, what if they all decided that Dell or Compaq or Microsoft were finally too rich for them and they all started lightening up at once? I appreciated folks thoughts on all this-- finally, does anybody know the date aol finally splits?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (14755)	3/7/1998 6:16:00 PM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

[My charts... show a downturn, but how great remains to be seen.] Since a lot of people on this thread, myself included, foresee an upcoming market correction, maybe those here can discuss what they expect, such as: * How big a plunge? Are we talking 10%? 20%? 50%? * What kind of plunge? The famed "Big Kahuna" that happens all at once, or a term I created, "Slow Motion Apocalypse" (SMA), where the decline occurs over an extended period of time, such as the Dow dropping say 50 to 100 points a day over time. * What kind of wider, macroeconomic effects will the plunge have? Paul McGinnis