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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Whitley who wrote (20819)	3/7/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Yes jack but that's just the problem There are far too many people who have abandoned a balanced portfolio to go after the gold ring of tech stock run-ups. They have gotten used to these higher returns and will not be satisfied with a money market rate of return on their cash. In fact cash is considered bad. Debt is good. Consumption based on debt is good. The stock market is like the lotto---let's take a chance. Even with 401K's people have not bothered to rotate their portfolios. Its a potential disaster. Perhaps you and I only risk in the market what we can afford to lose because we understand the risks, but I doubt that is the way the average investor sees it. They have been told it is a "long term investment". As you may have noticed, you cannot smoke in an American movie theater. Know why?

To: Jack Whitley who wrote (20819)	3/7/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 42771

Not talking about a crash, necessarily. The history of "Joe Public" investors is that they are over invested at the top, and they bail out at the bottom, when the pain becomes too great. Why will this time be any different? The same people who talked them in at the top will be taking them out at the bottom. I watched it happen in 1995 at the bottom in Mexico. A broker with 30 years experience took all of his customers out of Mexico when it was down 75%, after riding the whole decline. The public isn't meant to make money in the market. The fact that today they are trained to think they will all become millionaires doesn't change history. They will bail when they feel pain. The public started to sell in October at 10% down. Those who sell at that level will look like the smart ones when the real decline comes. But half of them will buy back too early, a la Jesse Livermore in 1930. The public is no smarter today than they were at prior secular tops. They're just better trained today because of the length of this up cycle. Dwight