Highlights from the Big Pharma Report posted on AOL's Motley Fool Pfizer Board.
Have PFun!
BigKNY3
______________________________________________________
Big Pharma Report- 3/14/98
Week
AMGN (+10.5%), SGP(+7.4%) and BMY (+4.3%) kept Big Pharma (+1.8%) ahead of gains for the Dow (+0.4%), S&P (+1.3%) and the NAStie (+1.1%). Big Pharma set a sector high of 84.75 on Tuesday. Eight of the "Healthy 13" set all-time highs .
After making a run at its high on Wednesday, PFE hit 89 1/16 and settled back to last Friday's close (-0.3%).
March
The relaxation of Medicaid guidelines concerning Epogen has propelled the laggard AMGN (+10.0%) ahead. The most impressive Big Pharma SGP (+7.4%) continues its mighty climb. PFE (-2.8%) is still in the March cellar..PFE is coming in like a lamb and will leave like a.....
YTD 1998
Big Pharma (+17.1%) remains one of the strongest sectors in the market. In comparison, lower gains have been recorded for the Dow (+8.8%), S&P (+10.1%), and the surprising NASTie (+12.8%).
Hats off to the 1997 champ SGP! They have once again regained the top spot with a 28.6% YTD increase. WLA (+28.0%) is real close and now sports the highest trailing PE in the sector (51.1).
PFE (+15.3%) has the 7th highest YTD growth in Big Pharma. Reflecting concern about the early start of Evista, LLY is the only Big Pharma to show a YTD decline (-5.7%).
Big Pharma News You Can Use (BigKNY3 Comments)
-Microsoft Investor has an excellent article on investing in this bull market and "guaranteed earners". Here's a highlight concerning PFE and MRK.
."Recognize that an atmosphere of earnings uncertainty changes the relative value of entire classes of stocks. With many companies -- including some rocks like Intel and Compaq -- issuing earnings warnings, and then delivering bad earnings as predicted, I'd expect that investors will bid the already-inflated prices of "guaranteed" earnings producers even higher. That's especially likely if analysts begin cutting earnings estimates for the second quarter as soon as the numbers for this period are officially in the bag. Investors could then reasonably conclude that steady earnings are worth a higher premium than they command even now. I know there is no way on the fundamentals to justify paying nearly 50 times earnings for a drug stock such as Pfizer (PFE) but I think the stock will head higher in the next six months, driven by a demand for predictable earnings.
I'd even suggest putting what I'd call a "reliable earnings strategy" in place after companies report in April. I'd buy a handful of big-name, highly liquid stocks that actually manage to deliver the earnings expected by analysts (beating projections by a penny or two would be my requirement) and that are showing 10% or better earnings growth.
You can name some of these right off the top of your head: Merck (MRK), Pfizer, Microsoft (MSFT) and Cisco (if they escape the technology meltdown), plus a few consumer names such as Home Depot (HD) and Gillette (G). Don't sell any of these names now if you own them -- but don't move on this strategy yet. It's important to wait to see who actually delivers the goods in April. I'll come back to this topic then and try to put together a list for you to consider. "
-This year's newly published Warner Lambert Annual Report contains many intriguing references to PFE:
"Now that our alliance with Pfizer has taken off, we see a vast expanse of opportunity ahead."
"Like Warner-Lambert, Pfizer had a clear goal in reaching out to another pharmaceutical manufacturer. A string of successes by Pfizer scientists positioned the company to compete effectively in a wide range of medical areas, from cancer to diseases of the central nervous system. Its success in the cardiovascular field had enabled it to compete well in every major product category-except one. "
"Five global pharmaceutical firms vied for the opportunity to help bring LIPITOR to market. After a period of careful evaluation, "Pfizer became the clear choice," says Richard Van Duyne, vice president of corporate development and licensing. The world's ninth-largest pharmaceutical company, Pfizer was well equipped to help meet Warner-Lambert's sales and marketing needs."
"We believed that their sales force would bring strong personal commitment to LIPITOR," says Dr. Olivier Brandicourt, vice president of global marketing planning for PARKE-DAVIS."
"Pfizer shared our goal to make LIPITOR the most widely available cholesterol-lowering drug in the world," says Raul Oliva, vice president and general manager for PARKE-DAVIS, Canada.
"Once having selected Pfizer, Warner-Lambert sought to gain worldwide acceptance of the drug as rapidly as possible. To maximize the opportunity, Warner-Lambert, with its enhanced manufacturing capabilities, fully engaged its 4,000 -member worldwide sales organization. Then, with Pfizer on board, LIPITOR had the momentum it needed."
"By joining together to market the cholesterol reducer LIPITOR, Warner-Lambert and Pfizer have rewritten the textbook on global pharmaceutical alliance building. Pooling their substantial resources and working as a close-knit team, the two companies rapidly made LIPITOR the most successful new product in the history of the pharmaceutical industry."
-This week's stock to watch: ICOS: Only Pharma with another PDE-V inhibitor in Phase II studies.( Approval of Viagra should have a positive impact.)
ED News You Can Use (BigKNY3 Comments)
-On March 6, 1998, KSAZ-TV in Phoenix featured a segment on Viagra and erectile dysfunction.
-In this months' Journal of Urology, a Vasomax clicnical study sponsored by Zonagen was published showing an efficacy rate of 40%. Here is highlights from the editorial comments concerning this study:
"Despite excellent results and minimal side effects, vasoactive intracavernosal pharmacotherapy of erectile dysfunction has poor patient acceptance and high discontinuation rates. Given the magnitude of the clinical problem, less invasive therapeutic approaches, in particular oral medication, demand attention, even if initial results may appear discouraging.
Patients for this prospective, double-blind, placebo controlled trial or oral phentolamine were carefully selected by an elaborate evaluation, which also included an interview by a psychiatrist, to avoid "obvious" psychogenic impotence. In addition, potential candidates were subjected to a placebo run-in period which resulted in exclusion of 10% of patients because of a positive response to placebo. Nevertheless, 20% of the patients in the placebo arm of the final study reported a successful response. In comparison 40% patients on active drug arms were considered to be responders, which is lower than reported previously in placebo controlled trials by Gwinup."
-Vivus issued a press release on a company sponsored survey concerning impotence. Note the missing "method" in their question concerning ED perferences.
"Of those individuals who said they would try treatment, the majority of men said that they would try an inserted medication over other methods mentioned (implants, vacuum device or self-injected medication)."
( A logical question would have been to ask whether men would prefer a transurethral product over a future oral product. If this question was asked in the survey, Vivus did not reveal the results.)
-V-Day Countdown -17 days
|
