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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Don Earl who wrote (20831)3/7/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: ToySoldier  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
Very insightful TA perspective Don. Like so many other things in life - there are so many IFs under every factor in determining a stock price future. I found it interesting that you felt that based on the TA, the Novell Lawsuit held the price from busting out. I heard other opinions that were more conservative in saying that the lawsuit had little effect on the stock price - but it might have actually been the spoiler.

too bad!

Quad - I read your response. You may very likely be right, I might be too optimistic in my October price. Like I said, my guesses (not predictions) are based only on technology, situation, and timing. Many other factors can destroy this guess royally.

I also agree with you on CPQ's announcements and the industry throwing stones at Novell.

Paul - I never stated anything about NT sales vs Novell. My case was the level of rough riding Microsoft will have to endure over the next year. The sale figures were not taken into account. As for Microsoft letting Novell have 3 quarters without response - Microsoft's NT5 FUD has started and is in major production as we speak. This FUD will only amplify the day after NetWare 5 is released and will never relent. The window of opportunity is NetWare 5 track record and acceptance in the industry will have no NT5 competitor until (my guess) late first Q of 1999. Novell may have a continuing opportunity after the NT5 actual release because all of Microsoft's NT5 functionality promises must then be proven. For example, will MAD (active directory) actually be in the initial release of NT5. If not, that only further increases NDS's lead against MAD.

Just some thoughts.