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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (48)	3/8/1998 6:03:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1722

Porcupine, Introducing to the thread -- The BAMBI On Jan 31st (Intel Trader, post 1874), I introduced a new toy I was playing with called the BAMBI indicator. As now, there was a lot of negative feelings expressed on SI about the level of the market and that a correction was going to happen momentarily. In this post I stated: "I'm playing, in my spare time, with a barometer of market direction. I've noted before that I'm impressed with the trends reflected in weekly MACD. So, I've divided the DJIA into seven "baskets" based on my observations of the weekly MACD: 1) Bullish signal issued this past week, 2) Bullish trend in place, 3) Bullish but pending change possible, 4) Bearish signal issued this week, 5) Bearish trend in place, 6) Bearish but pending change possible, and 7) Clear Indecision. While it would be simplistic to just look at the bullish and bearish patterns, BAMBI (Berney's Analytical Market Barometric Indicator (renamed subsequently)) will compare the sum of categories 1, 2 and 6 to the sum of 3, 4 and 5. Thus, Bullish = 19; Bearish = 10 equals bullish on market direction. Let the games begin!" BAMBI is getting more cautious. The previous week BAMBI was 27/2 (1 undecided); as of Friday BAMBI is 21/8 (XON is still undecided). Thus, I believe the direction in the short term is still onward and upward, but weakening. Only time will tell whether BAMBI has any merit. However, I refuse to invest based upon general observations that Mr. Market is overvalued. BAMBI has been in operation for six weeks. During this time the number DJIA stocks that beat the S&P is: 22, 21, 21, 10, 17, 12. Thus, from my perspective, this week will be extremely important in determining one's exposure to Mr. Market. It is clear to me that there are three investment themes for the future: Tech, Financial and Health Care. With the warning by Intel, Tech is DOA. The financials and Health Care are already so over valued that one gets dizzy (look at JPM and MRK). So for many reasons, I believe that this week is pivitol for Mr. Market's near-term performance. We'll see, Berney