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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9103)	3/8/1998 5:49:00 AM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice - 1. Whatever we say or think about GSM its operators/manufacturers have deployed a worldwide system which clearly works and they have NOKA and ERICY two very shrewd companies as committed to it as the Titanic survivors to their life boats. We must also ask if they have political support and how much their countires depend on them. 2. China needs answering. GSM is there why aren't we - not next month or next quarter but today? If we don't get in soon we will find that all the customers capable of paying have got GSMs and all the ones waiting for service can't afford to pay! 3. Vapour wear yes BUT the longer they can drag it out they greater the possiblity that they will find an alternative. Maybe not as good as CDMA but will give them another lease on life until the next one etc. In the meantime we will be congratulating ourselves on how good our equipment is and that the only big market we've got is the US or rather a big share in it!! I've said before that this business of mobile telephony has become political. Ask Tero what would happen to the Finnish economy if NOKA's technology were to make it's products obsolete and unsaleable? I just hope we get another big market and soon and then some. LIMETEX

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9103)	3/8/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Maurice, look like the power failures in NZ has no impact on your political ramblings. Your key board must run on sherry powered energy. OT Finally back home after long flight. Eight days in Beijing gave me no reasons to be optimistic. 1.2 billion consumers with no purchasing power adds to up not much. After pounding miles of pavement and risking my life crossing thousands of intersections, I don't see any signs of encouragement. Shopping centers, especially the large and modern ones with foreign goods, are not all that crowded and filled with curiousity seekers rather than cash register ringing shoppers. I did not run into a single PC store. The closest I came to was a copier/fax machine store, though I did see one shopping center displaying a temporary Iomega booth. I was told the computer stores are in the college district but did not see one as we drove through the area. I see a lot of cell phones in use, though not big as a percentage of population. The price is dirt cheap which leads me to concerns about profitability for US$ denominated investments. A "standard" cell phone cost around US$100-$200 range. Cost per minute is only $.05 with what appears to be a very minimal monthly charge. I was told that with average use, the monthly bill averages around US$10-$20 though I have no official source to back up the numbers. ERICY and NOKIA appears to dominate the market now though I see a lot of MOT phones in use. I had a conversation with a 25 yr old computer engineer who works for NewNet. Has anyone heard of this company? They do Short Message System and SS7(?) type products. At US$500 per month, he considers himself quite well off. He also mentioned that it will be very easy for him to find a US$3K+ per month job in the US, as many of his college friends have chosen to do. If a college grad with $500 per month is good income, how much purchasing power can China possibly have at this time. He is aware of CDMA since his SMS can be sent through both GSM and CDMA. He thinks that CDMA is much newer and therefore not prevalent anywhere yet. SAMSUNG is likely going to have to play a major role for CDMA to make a dent in China. Corruption remains big problem and consensus lean toward the worse-than-before camp. Unemployment is big issue since it was technically zero under communism. Tourism, a major source of foreign currency, is expected to be way down, especially from SEA countries. Many restaurants we visited had as many employees as customers. With the reforms being discussed at the National People's Congress, it is going to get worse before it gets better. The strength of the US market is just amazing. With INTC, MOT and CPQ prewarning, I guess the impact is still not convincing enough. What possibly could investors be waiting for to send the market tumbling? I got it - the next Ramsey Su vacation dates - leaving April 4 and back by April 13. Remember, you heard it here first. Ramsey

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (9103)	3/11/1998 1:27:00 AM
From: Asterisk	Respond to of 152472

Couple things hit me about this post and your last Maurice (as I get down on my knees and pray that he doesn't wind up his rant again). First up is that chicken wire and bubble gum were the exact words that were used to describe the first IS95 proposals. It is interesting that we come back to the same descriptions for this new stuff. Next is that I couldn't agree with you more that the OS doesn't make or break itself the applications do. If you have watched "Triumph of the Nerds" or whatever that excellent PBS show is they made that exact point. They said that for the Mac it was Adobe and for the first Apple it was the spreadsheet. I don't know if any of you remember a company that came out 5 or 6 years ago called neXt. They had a square computer (a computer in a square box) that was light years ahead of its competetion. I believe that the company was started by Steve Jobs and a year ago Apple bought it... Anyways the point is that this computer had kick butt hardware but the applications were never made for it. It died not because of the OS but because of the apps. The main contention that will kill Gates IMHO has been that he has control over ALL aspects of the software business. He makes the OS, the browser, the tools, and the games. This is too much. It gives him an inherant advantage when the time between releases of software is 2 years (and less for most stuff). With a product cycle that quick you definately have an advantage when you know the features and capabilities of the next OS before anyone else. And before anyone tells me otherwise you cannot say that when 2 Microsoft employees are sitting at lunch they don't talk, that is how the advantage is spread.