Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4396)	3/7/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Ploni	Respond to of 18691

Five weeks ago, someone could have looked at YHOO's pullback to 58 and shorted it, thinking he'd be in on the rest of the correction. But the stock's up 38 since then. I meant 38%. (But it'll probably be up to 96 by Tuesday or Wednesday). This is why many people take technical analysis with several grains of salt. Shhh! Don't let Dr. Cosmo hear you.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4396)	3/8/1998 6:00:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18691

>>>>Five weeks ago, someone could have looked at YHOO's pullback to 58 and shorted it,thinking he'd be in on the rest of the correction. But the stock's up 38 since then.<< You got it! That is why academicians say the stock market is a random walk with a positive drift of about 10-12%/year on average.<<< So, if someone makes an incorrect prediction, then it is reasonable to assume that the market is unpredictable? I was looking at the Yahoo! chart 5 weeks ago, and my prediction was that it needed a confirmation day before one could say it was in a downtrend. No confirmation occurred, as a matter of fact, it reversed. Since I made the correct interpretation, does that mean the market is predictable? Barb