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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (17324)	3/7/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

here's my secret indicator on semi's- TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR(TSEMF) TOWER is a fab company based in israel-when i mean fab is they produce specialized chips for a lot of the major semiconductor companies. i know the management very well and they are very conservative but they have been to me -last three years-a leading indicator on the demand,pricing situation in semiconductors. they told the street before any other semiconductor company that asia and demand was worsening and if you listen to them you would have been out of semi's or short at lot higher prices. the key is they take orders from all regions of semi's motorolla-national semiconductor-two biggest clients in advance so they give you pretty good guide on demand-also they usually pre annouce two quarters ahead- example in third quarter of 1997 -they earned 40 cents but they said FIRST half of 1998 was not going to be good at all- their fourth quarter was fine -in line but their first -april will not be good . they will bottom out in the first quarter -which is april=that means to me the rest of the market will not bottom minimun till july or probably the october quarter. also, i love tower , its the only semi i own-it trades at 10.25-7.00 in cash-book value-13.00-eps 1997-1.45-1998-60cents 1999-2.00 -trades at 1x sales- read the thread on it-they are building a billion doller factory in israel this summer -the government is GIVING them 250 million for free and they will get a partner-intel-phillips-next leg up on semi's with the new factory and products i think it goes to 40-60-its the cheapest semi out there really because their from israel and very little coverage but they going to get a partner-i think intel that will wake everybody up-if you like semi's this is unknown and as cheap as they get -loaded with cash short mu ,amat,idti, klic,ipec the rest of the group trades way overvalued in my opinion and NO WAY THE MARKET WILL BE PATIECE UNTIL OCTOBER when booking increase.