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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gokhan Gezmisoglu who wrote (4406)	3/7/1998 11:45:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

>And you know what, they have been right for so long that I am wondering what the real definition of right or wrong is. You keep telling people 2+2=4 and they claim it is 3 and the rest of the freaking world agrees with them. What if by the year 2000 AMZN trades at $1000 with 0 earnings.< All I can tell you is that I was fully invested from 1980 through August 97, some times even using substantial margin. I rode the middle east war and all that stuff. IMO the Asian crisis has changed the rules of the game, your friends may be in for a surprise. IMO a significant portion of the US growth was exported to the Asian economies directly and indirectly (when Europe, Australia, etc., exports to Asia they prosper and can then buy US products) I still don't understand why this has not sunk in. Probably I am the one who is nuts. At this point in time I would probably recommend being mainly in cash, bargain equities and a few good shorts. when will your friends be surprised? That I don't know but IMO sooner rather than later. Pancho

To: Gokhan Gezmisoglu who wrote (4406)	3/8/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Respond to of 18691

Janus Fund Manager James Craig 41, states formerly believed p/e and rog should be roughly equal but after falling behind the S&P since 93 has bent rules a bit. Old rule blown away. Says in 93 he was worst technology investor and now has mastered this sector. Janus now more in line with the market swings. But punch line for this story is his own words in 93 "I've never known anyone who did well in this business by changing his discipline to fit the market" Hopefully Tombstone material. (From Kiplinger's Magazine)