To: craig crawford who wrote (14341 ) 3/8/1998 3:39:00 AM From: Shroder Wertheim (Hijacked) Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
It is never easy to bet on down stock or bet against up stock (such as CPQ, INTC two-week ago almost all analysts have buy rating). Based on from I just saw from the Japan trip, I want to make the bold predictions: CSCO will be in big time trouble in the enterprise LAN area, COMS will make a super-strong showing in it system business. - Upcoming Superstack 3900 switch, Corebuilder 3500, 9000 have all the speed at unbelievable low price (street price $5k for 24 100 + 1G) . 3900 can perform line rate for 3G + 36 100Mbps, which is generation ahead of Cisco Cat5 and its newly announced 2900 series. I think 2900 is dead before its arrival. Cat 5 has generate billions for Cisco, but its throughput is so far behind today and its price has to tumble (3900 has more than 6 times the performance at less half the price, besides Where is the Gig for CSCO ?). I think it will also affect BayStack 350, at least forcing 350 to drop the price. 350 is generating 95M revenue per quarter for Bay, it only has bandwidth to forward 11 100M ports at wire-speed (3900 can forward 66 100M ports at wire-speed - 9.8Mpps). - COMS never had a real enterprise switch at reasonable price. It finally get one and it is done right (as a layer 2 switch) and well integrated ASICs. - I think Granite acquisition is a failure for CSCO, CSCO might have to grab another Gig company to fend off COMS - Extreme, Foundry or Packet Engine. Foundry probably is the better buy, it has rich and creative software features, Cisco-like commands, low price 100M + G hardware at good speed, its upcoming product will set the speed record. - Corebuilder 9000 might not get a lot of traditional router business, but it will definitely slow the growth of CSCO's old expensive router in the enterprise market. Companies can off-load the IP traffic from the old routers to the new wire-speed routing devices, let the old routers handle legacy routing and WAN access. - I was told 3900 will ship before the end of March. From what I saw, the product will be ready by then. This is big time product. Let's wait for 6 months to see if my predication has any truth in it.