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To: ed who wrote (20619)	3/8/1998 1:49:00 AM
From: kahunabear	Respond to of 97611

Its all supply and demand, no matter where you are in the food chain. If I am the only one that makes a hot product (component or pc ) I can make money. Unfortunately, the opposite is true. Supply has gone through the roof on components and is starting to go through the roof on PCs. The scariest thought of all, is that demand has been pretty strong through all of this. If, or when, demand slows, I think we will start to see bankruptcies. Remember oil in the early 80s ? Real estate in early 90s ? It can and will happen again ? It may be technology and stocks this time. WS

To: ed who wrote (20619)	3/8/1998 1:52:00 AM
From: ed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

WS, The reason I said it is the PC business drive the component business is because the BTO business model conducted by those PC makers which force those component vendors to build up big invenory to meet the requirement of the BTO business model conducted by box makers. If you can't fulfill the on time delivery policy, then I will place order to those component suppliers who can, that is the reason why you see disk driver manufacturers, INTEL, and other component suppliers all end up with big inventory problems. The burdern of inventory has been shiftted from box makers to the component suppliers and contract assemblers. For inventory of PC makers, it is pure their mistake in prediction, some has aggressive prediction, some has fully conduct the BTO business models , so you see HWP, CPQ, IBM, DELL, CPQ all have very different inventory level, some had more and some less, and it is all individual box maker's error in prediction , and of course it can be corrected very quickly!!!!