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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/9/1998 1:38:00 AM
From: Getcher	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Very Interesting Week last week!!! What is in store for us now? Intel bounces their good earnings name and the market, expectantly so, takes a turn for the worse. A more than minor recovery ensues in quick time ... not just the dead cat bounce everyone anticipated, but a return that held. Some strong jobs numbers hit us and we're off to the races. I am sitting here looking at next week thinking that the guy at the race track forgot to check most of the people's tickets!! What I mean is, there is no way the effects of INTC and MOT warning can live the way we are living right now, unless you can tell me straight-faced that this was priced into the market. I have an APR SOX 315 Call, so it is clear to see that I hope for the continued return, but my brain is having a very tough time understanding this. Ike, I am looking forward to your directional comments. Getcher

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/9/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike, I have been giving the Y2K problem some more thought and I think that part of the doomsday scenario that has been painted might be showing its ugly head over the last few days. INTC, sales down, CPQ same thing. Problems at MOT, but that seems to be a recurring theme. In any event, one of the scenarios is that sometime this year or early next, the procurement departments at the big companies are going to have to stop up-grading their hardware and software and concentrate and spend big bucks making their current code Y2K compliant. Some of the numbers that have been presented are astounding. Further, now that the SEC is requiring some sort of disclosure of a company's current Y2K situation and maybe dollar amounts to become compliant, I don't know exactly what is required, investors may start to think more about this sector in the coming months. If this holds true and hardware/software up-grades are put on hold or really studied before allocating the dollars because money must be spent instead on Y2K, I think we are headed for some real trouble over the next two years. I can see the entire tech sector in the doldrums, maybe with the exception of the equipment makers as the companies best situated to provide the newest, fastest, "bestest" machines when the companies once again have money for up-grades will be the companies that prosper. This means in the interim, equipment companies should have a field day as the likes of INTC etc upgrade for the next generation of chips. I believe that your buhumba (however that was spelled) may be coming true. Even on the heels of some serious announcements and the fact that the sector has added 20% or so in the last six weeks, it refuses to tank. This I cannot figure. So what I think is perhaps, this buy the dip mentality is going to be rewarded one last time as we run to levels unheard of over the next 4 to 6 to 8 weeks and then perhaps the stuff will hit the fan. This may be a Y2K deal and may be not. But once the stuff does hit the fan the Y2K sector may be the one that rocks. My bullish sectors starting within the next two to four months would be the equipment makers and the Y2K stocks. My bearish sectors would be almost all other tech stocks, certainly the chip companies. How would this all impact other sectors of the market? I don't have a big enough view to even begin to comprehend that. Ike, you would certainly be able to add to that part of the discussion, or maybe you will flat out disagree with the above scenario. That would be fine as well. I am not convinced it will come true, but it seems the pattern may already be starting. Interesting to watch. Thoughts anyone? -Scott

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/9/1998 2:17:00 PM
From: Bart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike-Hope you get back from skiing safely... The tree's have been a bit hostile this year in the US! Looking forward to some Ike wisdom on this market that laughs at INTC and MOT and CPQ when they miss their numbers badly! This bull does not want to die.... It shoulda died last week and I'm nervous.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/9/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

IKe BABA, Take this with a pinch of salt but are you watching China market like a hawk??? She breaks 1180 on a close and watch out for the rest of Asia... Hang Seng, Nikkei, Jakarta work together like an accordion..... I think you can "elaborate on fine details...." JT

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/10/1998 9:57:00 AM
From: b-witch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Ike, where are you? Eager to hear your thoughts!

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/11/1998 2:30:00 AM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Where is Ike??? Come in Ike. Hope you are having a great vacation! This market is just a little too baffling for the most of us.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17321)	3/12/1998 9:39:00 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Dear Ike, Safe journey. I just noticed that Barnes and Noble (BKS) reported record earnings with eps up 41 percent and beating street estimates 1.03 versus 96. Their annual sales $2.78B is greater than their market cap of about $2.6B. More importantly they are now generating free cash flow of $47M - this will help them to invest in their online business: barnesandnoble.com. If their internet business were valued the same as AMZN then their bookstore business of $2.78B would have a market cap of about $600M. My conclusion is that either AMZN is greatly over valued or BKS is tremendously undervalued. Conceivably BKS could also be overvalued. But, if that were the case then what would this do to AMZN. As far as I can see the situation can not stay this way for very long. There will be great volatility in these stocks and an opportunity for astute investors. What do you think? BTW I think the Barnes and Noble book stores are terrific and their website is easy to navigate and easy to understand. What will stop these people from investing their positive cash flow from their book business for online selling of books, music,software, or anything else they want to sell? Become something like the Home Shopping Network or QVC online. Regards, Mary Cluney