To: Robert Graham who wrote (6656 ) 3/8/1998 11:48:00 AM From: Chris Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
Subject: NASDAQ Gems - beaten down fundamentally sound stocks | Previous | Next | Respond | To: ZSCRAPER (5740 ) From: LastShadow Thursday, Mar 5 1998 9:28PM EST Reply # of 5789 The Market: I would caution all entries tomorrow, as the 2-2.5% correction for the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite Market (NCM) Indices are all still headed down. In fact, the NCM shows a Bearish Hammer candle, and the S&P is a Bearish Big Candle. The DJIA is behind these in downward momentum, but should get there tomorrow. The net forecasted a bottom range of 7800-8000 for the DJIA and 1600-1650 for the NASDAQ. This is a preliminary look ahead based on the markets actions during last April, October and year end, and is by no means statistically significant at this moment. Each correction is unique, and the net requires a few more days of data to learn the present one. In any case, this is not a minor 'pullback'. The combined effect of moving 6 mutual funds to a fixed income account was a savings approximately 1% of the total value. Funds are slower to recover, though, and it is entirely possible that they may not be moved back to stock funds for 1-2 months. I would not be surprised to see the mutuals lose half the year-to-date gain before reversing. I would be wary of any false reversals tomorrow. The market is still too overbought right now. So the question is what to buy? Jenna's post on the oil, retail, consumer goods stock is excellent advice. During market corrections, people still buy food, gas, health, clothing and personal items, and those stocks are fairly safe bets. Look at what a particular stock did in the late October tanking. Espcially if earnings are due. If they were due then and are due out soon, thats where the big money will be moving. Be wary of mergers, IPO's and stocks whose fundamental data is inflated by acquisitons in the last quarter. If your stock opened down today but recovered close to yesterday's median price or above, its probably worth holding onto. However, corrctions trickle to other sectors and so if it is iffy fundamentally, you might consdering taking whatever profit you may have. Also thinly traded stocks that had no drops at open are also safe bets for the moment. The first down wave may end tomorrow, and monday may be the first day of the interim up wave that could last through Wednesday. I hope the third wave to start next Thrusday. As for shorting, flks who shorted INTC this morning lost $2 buy day end. If yu really want to short something, I would recommend the DJIA March futures. But the bottom line is this - if you are really good enough to short now, you don't need my opinion...or anyone else's. lastshadow | Previous | Next | Respond | View 2 replies to this message View SubjectMarksBookmark this Subject Return to Short-Term Traders One or more words separated by spaces: Subject Titles Only Full-Text Messages with Links <Picture> Send questions and feedback to webmistress@techstocks.com Terms of Use