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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (4455)	3/8/1998 3:46:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6980

Thread: This is what our old friend and ex-BAY lover is saying on the 3COMS thread: ______________________________________ To: +lin huan chen (14353 ) From: +Mang Cheng Sunday, Mar 8 1998 1:27PM EST Reply # of 14356 Lin Huan, it indeed looks like BAY is having some product transition problems right now. It's trying to backload March in order to meet the estimate as reported by thestreet.com (please see BAY thread). BAY at $33, with p/e of 30 is too rich. It can easily drops back to the early $20s to make up a p/e of 20 something if the slightest sign of slow-down is apparent. Mang _______________ This is my reply posted on the COMS thread: To: Mang Cheng (14354 ) From: vepoc Sunday, Mar 8 1998 3:40PM EST Reply # of 14356 Hi Mang; I was surpised to see your comment about BAY. I don't think BAY or anybody has said that BAY is trying to back-load March. What has been said is that in the normal course of events in this seasonally soft quarter, the quarter is back-loaded. Some estimates are that 50% of sales come in March. The ML analyst opined this but then went on to reiterate an accumulate recommendation and to give an earnings estimate only 1 cent short of the consensus. The CFO mentioned the importance of March sales in the Goldman Sachs meeting last Wednesday. Its not a secret or a rumour. All this has been known for some time. House the CEO has gone out of his way to explain the nature of the seasonally soft factors (which also apply to 3COMS) especially in a major meeting with analysts about a month ago. This has been necessary to prevent analysts getting carried away with expectations of upward suprises this quarter. House and Bay and analysts have said that the June quarter will be very strong but that this quarter may follow the normal trend of not showing sequential growth - even though BAY is trying hard to reverse that historical trend. There are many ways of valuing a company - BAY is going through product transition and is gaining market share. What P/E is that worth? I think your comment was based on factually incorrect premises and I don't understand why you think BAY should visit the low 20's. Of course it might, especially if the general market corrects sharply, and so might COMS. Anything might happen, but let us have some rational framework. With reference to the other post on this thread that BAY is about to pre-announce, those of us on the BAY thread would really like to know the source of this opinion, or even the nature of the rumour to which it alludes. Victor