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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Richardson who wrote (17334)	3/8/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Michael Ohlendorf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Which week/day is AMAT most likely to warn ?

To: Richard Richardson who wrote (17334)	3/8/1998 1:10:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

richie -the truth stinks huh-just giving an opinion that happens to be right most of the time-regarding amat-i've said before i think long term its a great company but i'm a trader and as you know have been short amat 36-38-and the main reason valuation have to come down and their is no reason to be AGGRESSIVE in buying it. as i pointed out soundview said semi's in past history usual bottom out around 1x sales of trailng numbers. the semi's-including amat today trade almost 3x sales which ijn historic terms in expensive. if amat would trade at 2xsales it would be priced somewhat around 22 dollers per share. do not make the mistake to look at the high and low with semi's as they usually get overpriced during booms and underpriced during downtrends. these money managers are going to get sick of coming into work and hearing bad news -INTC-MOT -CPQ-AND AT SOME POINT if the past is in indication of the future you should see a panic selloff where these companies become undevalued. my point to get across that i see know reasin to be aggressive buying techs or amat at this time . simple as that. well, if your a long term player then what i say shouldn't bother you but don;t get mad or upset if amat goes to 25 because the writing was on the wall that short term technology companies are having problems and their more coming. their is no doubt in that. regarding tsemf-it trades at 1xsales ,under book value -at cash. my point is i use it for one leading indicator and from what they tell me amat will not bottom out until around the fall . that was all my point-i see amat eps being 38 cents next quarter down from 52 cents and 20-25 cents in the august quarter and it could be lot more scarier than that .SEE CPQ-VLSI,MOT. whats even more ugly is is management of these companies keep getting even more cautious everyday meaning my forecast might look to bright. just an opinion-don;t take it personally