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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: China Trader who wrote (33102)	3/8/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: bede	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

So, Dell traded down 7pts after-market in response to Compaq's bad performance!! Frankly, I'm shocked, shocked. How silly of me to think that Dell and Compaq are competitors. Odd isn't it that that's roughly the same 7pts Dell ran up on Friday? Does anyone expect that Dell will be trading down another 7 pts by 10am, after the split? Market makers hope you do; they may well try to make your Level II screen look that way at the open (but probably not even that -- they've shook down the after-market 'pros'; they're setup for big profits (like Friday) and Monday's rise.) Speaking of shakedowns, they'd like you to forget the computer industry is in a shakedown phase wherein dimwitted box makers get eaten by better box makers. Don't we all know that all signs point to Dell winning and winning market share, even from low-ballers like cmpq, ast, packard bell, etc? And don't we all know that everyone wants a computer, a first one/ a new one ... whatever? Then, will anyone be really surprised when Dell closes Monday at an adjusted price higher than Friday's close? You know how market makers and first-time Dell investors love the news of Dell 'at such low prices', right? Save an Asian meltdown before Monday's open, I see Dell up a little at 9:30 and a lot by 10am. This makes Dell -- as always -- both a good daytrade and a good investment on Monday am. And if everything above is wrong on Monday ... it will be right on Tuesday.

To: China Trader who wrote (33102)	3/8/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 176387

China, re: However, I don't see Dell doing well in Asia. No computer companies are doing well in Asia in the next 6 months. I ah but you see the glass half empty. If Asia was at full strength, along with Europe coming on, and we were seeing problems in CPQs numbers, I would be worried. Asia will back much faster then most people realize, when they do, they will be playing catch up. Updating their IT facilities as a way to pull them out of the current down trend. Greg

To: China Trader who wrote (33102)	3/8/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: David E. Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Consensus means estimates for DELL Q1 are 0.83 (range 0.78 - 0.86) by First Call as of 3/7, and 0.82 (range 0.75 - 0.86) by Zaks as of 2/28. FWIW, my financial model for DELL, which takes into account IDC and Dataquest projected PC sales worldwide (amongst other things), and which has been on the money to +/- 0.01 for the last 4 quarters, shows DELL earning 0.87 (range 0.85 - 0.89). So I believe the longer term prospects for DELL are unchanged by the CPQ/INTC warnings -- there's plenty of market share for DELL to grab even if PC sales are below the present (already lowered) expectations, and DELL has shown that they can take market share in big chunks - even when CPQ was increasing its market share at the same time as last year. IMO, we're going to see some downward pressure on DELL (and other tech stocks tomorrow) after an opening around 66-67, but I believe DELL has a better chance than most of holding up. I was pretty amazed at the broad strength in both the tech stocks and the markets generally on Friday. It only took 24 hours for the INTC news, which was in fact much worse than last May, to be discounted and for everything to rebound (despite MOT). Seems to me that shrugging off CPQ will take a bit longer, even if there are no more surprises. David T.