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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (14817)	3/8/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Paul, I think it was about a year ago, and on this thread, that I was saying complacently "it's not 1929" and pointing out all the mechanisms that will prevent a depression like that of the 1930s. I was immediately attacked by another member of SI for being too bullish, and for not expecting a crash of 90% in the market. I still don't expect another Great Depression, but the possibility of a 50% or better bear market seems much more likely. Then later in the year, and especially after the burp of indigestion last October, I was attacked by people who seemed to think that the brief correction then was a fault of pessimistic thinkers. Your dispassionate analysis, based both on logic and on a knowledge of economic history, is probably going to earn you some contemptuous and insulting treatment, especially if and when the market finally turns bearish. It almost amounts to a religious conviction among many now that a 20% per year growth of equity values is assured. Incidentally, I am already (and, it turned out prematurely) heavily into oil stocks of all kinds. I realize that these, too, may be dragged down in a general market decline but gasoline is ridiculously cheap right now, if you look at the pump prices, and crude is a great bargain. I wish I owned an empty salt mine in Louisiana into which to horde crude oil. But royalty stocks, such as BPT, are nearly the same thing--and one can enjoy a decent income, even at depressed oil prices. Some gold and silver mining, too, and some Korea. Mainly I am hedged against a crash of U. S. stocks. And like you, free of debt except for a small remaining mortgage.

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (14817)	3/9/1998 12:24:00 AM
From: kahunabear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I think many people do know that this is getting crazy. Especially those close to the market. Eventually there will be a mad rush for the exits. Greed and money drive this grand illusion. And you are right it has happened over and over again. It must just be part of human nature. Bilow's beanie baby analogy is a good one. Tulips, beanie babies, tickle me elmo, stock, oil deals, real estate, S&Ls, junk bonds, whatever. People seem to love a good mania. Especially when they are making money. And as long as you can be one of the first ones to dump your beanie babies before the market for beanie babies cools (which everyone thinks they will be able to do and won't) then everybody is happy. Each successive dip that is bought strengthens the illusion. In the end most will look back and say they knew it was going to happen or they should have seen it coming. But I think most must know, they just suppress it. WS