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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: j g cordes who wrote (15312)3/8/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 68311
 
Jim,

I am going to move this conversation over to this thread.
People tend to get a little too touchy about too many off topic postings.

> Read in the China papers on their intentions to spend their way out
> of the Asian flu,against the Indonesian problems and those in
>SKorea. They want to put a trillion into new technology
>initiatives between now and 2002. Think of it, a billion people
>without voting rights using cell phones! Not.

I am starting to see some cracks in China. ORTL reported lousy
international broadband sales in China this last Q because
of some internal politics within the country. It is not the start
of a trend, but it is something to keep in mind. China has been
strong so far for most companies, but it could be lumpy going forward.
MOT also reported lower than expected pager division sales in China
in their conference call.

> After a strong January and a strong February and a strong March
>so far, it seems prudent for the averages to cool off a little...
>yet Friday's action proves money is willing to buy any selloff.
>It feels like a bull trap, but betting against it has proven
>dangerous for anything more than spike bottoms that rally. I've
>been making all my option trades with minute by minute caution and
>have been willing to take profits earlier than
>normal

This weeks Barrons noted the same thing, that market sentiment
had de-coupled from earnings reality. Murphy is also calling for
a correction. With the CPQ warning on Friday and no significant
news Monday we should see some money come out.

The quarter is over for the fund managers so they don't have to worry
about their quarterly performance reviews for a while. Earnings
pre-announcements should start soon in earnest. Fund inflows should be high. The better part of valor for the fund managers might be to stand aside till the picture is more clear, so the money has to come out soon.

Harry