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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Lawrence who wrote (13525)	3/8/1998 8:17:00 PM
From: drmorgan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

Article about ROK, I've posted the highlight of the article unless of course your a ROK investor. <g> Modem chip mess Rockwell's other major operation, semiconductor systems, is more of a gamble. The division has been the largely unknown leader in modem chips, a business now undergoing dramatic changes and perhaps facing extinction. Nevertheless, the company says that it is committed to semiconductors, even though the division turned in flat sales from 1996 to 1997. The group's revenue in 1997 was $1.6 billion, 20% of Rockwell's sales, with operating earnings representing 21%. Sales for Rockwell semiconductors boomed in the first half of 1997, but were poor in the second, largely because of a hiccup in the 56k modem market. About half ($800 million) of Rockwell's semiconductor revenue is derived from sales of chips for PC modems. It supplies most modem makers, and is still the largest modem chip supplier. Its leadership began in sales of modem chips for Japanese fax makers. Rockwell's struggles began during the transition to 56k modems that started in early 1997. Knowing that one of its largest customers--and the biggest consumer modem company-- U.S. Robotics (now part of Santa Clara's 3Com Corp. ) was switching to Texas Instruments Inc., Dallas, as the supplier for its 56k chips, Rockwell announced an incompatible design, k56flex. Then it couldn't deliver the new chips, but overnight prices dropped dramatically on its older V.34 modem chips, which were considered old-fashioned. "It shot itself in the foot," notes Will Strauss, president of Forward Concepts, a research firm in Tempe, AZ. When both designs entered the market, it was Beta and VHS all over again. Buyers were confused, especially because each chip has no clear advantage over the other. Soon sophisticated users learned that the 56k modems typically transmit at speeds only in the low 40 kilobits per second (kbps) range because of FCC regulations and telephone line conditions. As a result, many customers decided to wait. The controversy has been resolved with a common standard, and soon the modems will be interoperable. But Rockwell's dominant 65% market share in the 28 Kbps-33 Kbps generations will drop to about 40% in 56k modems, about the same share that TI has, according to Forward Concepts. Nevertheless, Rockwell has shipped about 5 million k56flex chipsets to PC-modem customers and 2 million more to central-site modem customers such as Internet service providers. Depending on the modem manufacturer, many of the installed modems can be upgraded to meet the new standards. Whatever the outcome, the analog modem as we know it has limited prospects. Two trends will kill it. Consumers are demanding faster access to the Internet and faster microprocessors, and general-purpose digital signal processing (DSP) chips will allow software to take over today's modem function in future computers. eb-mag.com

To: David Lawrence who wrote (13525)	3/9/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: Moonray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 22053

In-Stat Analysis Shows Remote Access Server Market Declined 4% While Routers Grew 4% in Sales for the Fourth Quarter of 1997 08:18 a.m. Mar 09, 1998 Eastern SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 9, 1998--In-Stat released its Q4 1997 Networking Quarterly results for Routers and Remote Access Servers (RAS) to its customers on February 20, 1998. RAS sales declined for the second consecutive quarter, but 1997 resulted in 20% sales growth to $2.4 billion. Port shipments increased by 9% over the third quarter of 1997 reaching 1.65 million ports to end the year with 6.2 million ports shipped in 1997, a 36% increase over 1996. The RAS market has not experienced strong growth in sales since the second quarter of 1996. "While demand for these networking products remains extremely healthy, the culprit behind the less than ideal conditions is ASP erosion brought about by the highly competitive nature of this particular market segment," explained Jeremy Duke, Director of In-Stat's Communications Market Services Group. "Clearly, with ASPs dropping significantly, only the largest players will be able to win in this market." In-Stat believes increasing demand for Access Concentrators will continue to be a trend through the next quarter. "Access Concentrators represented 82% of the total RAS sales opportunity at the end of the fourth quarter, a dramatic increase from a comparative level of 77% in the fourth quarter of 1996," Duke added. The router market has been experiencing flat revenues, teetering at about $1.5 billion each quarter, with Q4 reaching $1.524 billion. Unit shipments increased 11% to 390 thousand units. For 1997, the router market grew 23% in unit shipments and 5% in sales to $5.998 billion. The biggest driver of unit shipment growth continues to be the low-end segment, while high-end routers maintain a significant portion of router sales. Across all router segments, Cisco maintains the number one position with a 56% share of worldwide routers shipped, and a 75% share of worldwide router revenue in Q4 1997. In a distant second and third place are Bay Networks and 3Com with combined market shares of 15%. "Q4 1997 RAS Market Analysis" No.CQ9801M3, and "Q4 1997 Router Market Analysis" No.CQ9801M2 are Duke's new reports for In-Stat's Networking Quarterlies Service. They include detailed market shares and a rolling three-quarter forecast of the Router and Remote Access Server markets. Each of these reports is priced at $2,495, which includes analyst inquiry privileges on the topics covered. To purchase these reports or for information about the Networking Quarterly program or In-Stat's Communications, Semiconductor, and Computer Services, contact Dennis Ashton at (602) 483-4471, email dennisa@instat.com. In-Stat is a full service, high-technology, market research and information company serving the semiconductor, communications, computer, and multimedia marketplaces. In-Stat is part of Cahners Business Information, the largest publisher of specialized business publications in the United States. Visit In-Stat Online at instat.com. (See also: instat.com) (See also: businesswire.com) o~~~ O