To: Bald Man from Mars who wrote (20781 ) 3/8/1998 8:21:00 PM From: cm Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
Just An Observation In Passing... What with all the CPQ news--and the fact that my company is going to visit their Networking and Communications Products Division soon--I just thought I'd check out the CPQ thread. I apologize if I am repeating things from much earlier posts or seem to suffer from Dell-envy... which, I assure you, I don't. Further, this all just MHO to kill time on a Sunday evening before a barbecue... which may be my own. *** At the risk of stating the obvious, the stock WILL recover... barring the end of the bull's eight-year run. And it will recover handsomely. I'll entertain questions about this. I'm not invested in CPQ or any hardware manufacturer, so maybe I'm a little too aloof to all the sturm und drang surrounding their pre-announce. But, EP and crew are very bright and intense guys. CPQ will come back. *** I will be looking to buy CPQ this week. No massive position. Maybe 3k. But enough for me to care about the short term prospects of the company. That will be my skin in this game. *** I know Dell's culture and history far better than I know CPQ. I worked with their marcom group as a vendor... and even shared office space with them for a year. If somebody thinks Dell is complacent, they're not reading history or the present very carefully. Dell is a fired-from-rocket kind've of culture. Much running and gunning. Much shooting from the hip. Every kind of encrusted arrogance one associates with fresh b-school grads. And their senior ranks have some hard-ball players who are as scarily dedicated and single-minded as you will run across... outside of tent revival meetings. Let's not underestimate Dell. Or over-estimate them, either. *** The thing that Dell's got--at times, they didn't even fully know its value--is the direct business model. They are far closer to their customers... and much further along in developing a knowledge-base about their customers... than CPQ can be with its mediated reseller approach. Being closer to the pulse of your customers--especially in the major accounts areas--IS extremely important. This isn't just puffery or feel-good thinking couched in words like "customer-centric." This IS allowing customers to become more like co-producers of product, participating in the process. This IS gathering unique and valuable information that can help in the design and messaging of new products and services. *** While I will be looking to invest in CPQ here shortly-- haven't picked what I think would be a good entry price, yet-- and am very sanguine about CPQ's ability to rebound over the next six months or year, I am not so sanguine about CPQ's business model. I think their mediated way of doing business--in an era of disintermediation through Web (where Dell sells $4 million a day), etc--is a STRUCTURAL limitation on their longer-term prospects. And, I wonder, if their acquistion of Tandem (which I know a little bit about) and Thomas Conrad (which I know a little about) and DEC (which I know NOTHING about--in terms of how they sell) will open CPQ up to direct selling and knowledge-base building. But, this last bit of wondering is just so much brain froth. In any case, I respect those that have invested here. And wish you nothing but a turnaround and better prospects very soon... especially peacelover... who seems to have the kind of spirit that all SI threads could benefit from. c m