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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kip518 who wrote (4476)	3/8/1998 9:23:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

Kip, so far IMO CCI is a short. I am too tired to provide much in terms of details. First of all the 10K for fiscal 97 is available. Key highlights: 1. Significant loan exposure in Asian Pacific. IMO non-performing loans in these areas will increase significantly, profitability of the area should also decline as long term currency hedging will not be possible. THey did pretty well the last quarter of 97, fenced off the Asian devaluations pretty well. 2. General deteriorating trend in key financial ratios, and decreasing cash flows from operations. IMO can get a good 30 points or more in the short side before the year is over (To Jeff Something: This is not a recommendation to short the stock) Pancho Tomorrow will look at CMB and BBY. BTW insider selling for both CCI and CMB not as dramatic as for some of the tech companies. I am still surprissed by AVEI's significant insider sales, Asian exposure combined with legal troubles should prove this puppy to be a rewarding short before June is over (I am short the stock)