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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (14824)	3/8/1998 10:41:00 PM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

[About that Fed injection of liquidity in '93. It looks to me like they are injecting it about as fast as they can] The Washington Post ran an article in the Feb. 23, 1997 issue, about how the Fed and other government agencies try to prevent a crash. Here's the link: washingtonpost.com I don't think this is a good idea -- market manipulation attempts usually make the situation worse. I recall reading a Federal Reserve sponsored research paper about how they tried to control the 1987 crash from spreading, but I don't remember the reference. In essence, they got into the derivatives market and boosted the index contracts. I'll have to locate that article. Paul McGinnis

To: Bilow who wrote (14824)	3/8/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

>> Smells like the late 60s to me. I have been struggling with this for the last 6 months. Last summer in Wyoming, after things first started to unravel, Greenspan said that modern fiat currency system had the power to create unlimited amounts of debt and currency. At the time, most saw this as a strange and inappropriate statement and chose to ignore it. In retrospect it is clear that he understood the depth of the SEA problem and was perhaps signaling his preferred solution way back then. If my analysis is of his words is correct, then the correction will follow the late 60's and 70's pattern (with a twist naturally). The derivatives problems are beginning to surface in Europe and here. JPM is first out of the blocks with problems, but several sources that I spotted today on the internet are talking about Citibank joining in on the fun and games. I guess old Al had better keep them electronic presses rolling -g-

To: Bilow who wrote (14824)	3/8/1998 11:56:00 PM
From: kahunabear	Respond to of 94695

Great Post! It is a tough top to pick. It really feels like nothing will take this market down. It is scary indeed. When it ends it ends abrubtly and without much warning. I remember when people that new nothing about the oil business were putting together wildcat drilling deals and everyone was lining up to buy them. Most new that it was crazy, but greed got the best of them, and in the end a lot of people lost a lot of money. It was a mania and this feels very similar. WS

To: Bilow who wrote (14824)	3/9/1998
From: Bonnie Bear	Respond to of 94695

Carl: I've seen some interesting numbers that suggest that most of this market mania has been due to a combination of the never-ending pension fund stock purchases combined with companies buying back their own stock, plus companies buying stock to put into the 401Ks through share-matching programs. So the party ends this time when all companies go private when they have bought back all of their outstanding shares and have exhausted all possible M&A, and the pension plans think money-market and bonds are better. The pensions don't care what they buy, they buy a bucket of kitchen slop labeled "smallcap growth" etc and hope a few seeds in the slop bucket take root and grow in the text thirty years. So the stocks won't be sold until the pension plans have to issue the checks.By that time the companies will offer high yield again so the stock won't have to be sold. That's my guess.