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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gokhan Gezmisoglu who wrote (4491)	3/8/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: greenspirit	Respond to of 18691

Gokhan, no it wasn't this thread at all. I just happened upon it today. Why AOL and why now? I have been watching AOL continue it's relentless climb for about a year now. After they announced a price increase of a few dollars a month, and the stock ran up. I believed Wall street had gotten this one all wrong. The reason they raised prices is more likely because they are desperate for the cash. Also, I believe more and more people in America are getting sophisticated enough in the use of the internet, to know that all you need from a provider is a cheap monthly rate and a fast connection. They will IMO lose customers over this rate hike. Once the street realizes this the stock will correct maybe as much as 50 points. What makes AOL worth 250X earnings and all the other providers worth a tenth of that? There is nothing which prevents people from taking those costumers away. Chat rooms will all eventually move to the net, ICQ is the same or better than AOL's device. And I would much rather use a straight Microsoft Explorer Browser than that hybrid thing they force on people. So AOL is destined to come back to some kind of realistic valuation of 30-50x earnings. My timing may not be right, but it's destined to happen IMHO. Regards, Michael