Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (4494)	3/8/1998 11:27:00 PM
From: dpl	Respond to of 18691

>dpl, which survey are you quoting? Barron's publishes four different surveys every week. Consensus,Inc's survey shows 77% bullish opinion while AAII shows only 13% bears.< Investors intelligence has been doing this since 1955.They have the most consistence data.Their numbers are good for tops and great for bottoms.You can get the numbers in Investors Daily. Major markets have always had two things before they end. 1.a huge amount of bullishness 2.a huge top. I see none of these right now.Maybe it will be different this time? What is happening in the LT in this market has happened twice before.In fact this decade looks so similar to the last decades of those huge bulls it is scary. The market has huge multi decade bull moves followed by long periods of very bad markets. After the 1920's it took about 25 years to pass it's 1929 peak.After the next huge bull that ended in the late 1960's it took 16 years(1982) to come back. These huge bulls always end the same way.You have a decade where the "public" discovers the stock market and believes it can only go up. We have all heard ot the 1920's where the "public" discovered stocks on margin but they also bought huge amounts of "trusts"(funds) also. In the 1960's(the go go years) the public fell in love with stocks funds.(sound familiar?) This is happening in the 1990's with one difference.IT IS FAR BIGGER. The trouble with these huge bulls is they can go a lot higher than one can imagine. If fact if this is a true "bubble" this market should go a lot higher.

To: Oeconomicus who wrote (4494)	3/9/1998 8:33:00 AM
From: tom pope	Respond to of 18691

Bob, very good point re Roth IRAS - if a version of the national sales tax makes it, the Roth-ites wind up with the wrong side of an expensive bargain. Another point is that large-scale movement into Roths will reduce liquidity available for investment because of the need to pay taxes on the converted amount. I wonder if this effect has been quantified? Or would it be negligible in relation to the vast amount of 401k money sloshing in every month?