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Technology Stocks : Altaba Inc. (formerly Yahoo) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8040)	3/9/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: TheBigB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27307

So William - assuming that AOL's Ad revenue and subscriber base is the correct analogy for YHOO - here is what I find. AOL : 50% of the internet - stays there for a reasonably long time and are guaranteed to visit. Very difficult to switch YHOO : Approx the same number of users, not guaranteed to visit and not forced to visit AD Revenues Last quarter AOL : $110 Million YHOO : $25 Million Market Cap : AOL : 12 Billion $ YHOO : $4.5 Billion $ Now - you're telling me that the added flexiblity of having $2 Billion in revenues is hurting AOL to the point where it should be valued at $19 Billion and it isn't. Remember - it's a lot easier to switch from YHOO than from AOL. I think not. YHOO is overvalued but that doesn't mean that it will come down of course. BTW : Michael Collings : that post about ad spending was illuminating. Even though Winter Olympics must have helped, I didn't see YHOO's site as being one ofthe big winter olypics destinations. I wonder why this news article is not getting more attention. Of course, the truth/expectation may be that big sites are not hurt and only small sites are hurt. However, I have observed the oppositte. I have noticed an explosion of advertising on previously small sites and these ads are coming via matchlogic or doubleclick. I agree with you - this is a blow off so that nervous longs can get out before next earnings. if next quarter's earnings are great - people will jump right back in.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (8040)	3/9/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Bankceo	Respond to of 27307

When stocks continue to rise with PE and price/sales ratios several years ahead of their current valuation...Shorts can only be proven wrong if there are dramatic earnings surprises,,,ie, if Yahoo were to triple earnings estimates then I'd say...OK...we're wrong....But the earnings model is clearly inferior to AOL's even as they do not get a share of customer revenue and rely solely on advertising and I assume a % of sales from their partners...The stock is wasy ahead of itself..On a side issue, I believe the growth rates on net usage are going to level off...There is a series of non-participants, mostly senior citizens who will not touch the technology...The 60% non-households of PC owners will only gradually increase.... I have a call stradle strategy that will prevent me from losing much if the stock continues to hyper-ventilate..by rolling over the calls and taking the premium...But it is not my belief...I talked about the Head and Shoulder pattern a while back...I was wrong....From 68 to ??? will be the head...Regardless, worst case, Yahoo will be a market hedge like in October......The series of MAJOR TECH disappointments is of concern. The INSIDERS are SELLING....The Mutual Funds are BUYING....The Float is increasing dramatically....We will wait for the new fund holders to panic and sell or until the news of Fidelity dumping their shares gets out...should be soon...but I dont know for sure...Just a rumor.....