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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (8683)	3/9/1998 12:57:00 AM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 13594

J.C., In the short term, the market focuses on subscriber growth. Until that number cracks, I do not believe AOL will drop substantially. Since this number is unaudited, what will cause it to crack? Well, at the very least, we can divide the quarter's declared access fee revenues by roughly $20 (soon to be $22) and if the number that comes up does not approximately equal their declared membership numbers within ~10% (to account for full-year prepayments and clients on the hourly pay-as-you-go rate), I would say they're lying and that membership growth has, in fact, stalled. Of course, this would involve pulling out a calculator, looking up and typing in the numbers, and actually thinking about the results for five minutes. Not likely, these days... :o)

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (8683)	3/9/1998 7:09:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 13594

>. Like you, I view the current ISP business model as unprofitable. Apparently ATT and MCI do as well, but the telcos are willing to enter that business in order to retain customers and achieve greater synergy with their other businesses (such as phone calls over the internet). < You say it better than I did a few post back. You are right for option holders the clock ticks too fast. I really don't know what will happen long term. I wish the tide turned around faster but I don't know the timing. One thing that may help is the overall market coming down. Also, from the insider selling it may be that their first quarter results will not be so good. pancho