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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Al Gutkin who wrote (5054)	3/9/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: Arnie Doolittle	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 10227

TO ALL: Ok, you Nextelites, here's some REAL solid food for thought re NXTL's 1st quarter adds. Watch the magic numbers and tell me what you think. MOT announced on 10/31/97 that it had shipped 1,000,000 iDEN handsets since inception. On 2/23/98, a mere 115 days later, MOT announced it had shipped 2,000,000 iDEN handsets. Now, let's do a little math. Assuming that 1/3 of NXTL's 324,000 4th quarter adds were in October, that means that the remaining 216,000 were part of MOT's second million handsets. Stay with me, folks, this gets real interesting at this point. 1,000,000 minus 216,000 = 784,000 handsets shipped by MOT between 12/31/97 and 2/23/98. If you assume that MOT will continue to ship at the same rate from 2/24/98 to 3/31/98, that's another 313,000 i600 units. 784,000 + 313,000 = 1,097,000 units will be shipped between 1/1/98 and 3/31/98. Granted, NXTL isn't MOT's only iDEN customer but I'm willing to bet that the lion's share went to NXTL. But let's say I'm wrong and only half went to NXTL. That puts NXTL's 1st quarter adds at a MINIMUM of 548K - unless NXTL has some i600 inventory on hand. As you all know, I'm on the conservative side so I've set NXTL's 1st quarter adds at 408,000. Are we shooting ducks in a barrel or what? Arnie