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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dwight vickers who wrote (20889)	3/9/1998 11:20:00 AM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

Watching the tape It would seem that the money coming into the market still thinks that CPQ is an exception, that there is no slow down in the PC market. Let's see if the little guy jumps in around 12:30. Its interesting to notice that Taiwan, which has been an up Asian market is starting to feel some kind of pinch. What kind could that be? Well lets try the vast exporting into the American market they do of electronics. Could they be seeing a decline in demand? In the typical recession you only find out about it 6 months after it happened. Maybe the stock market wants to become a lagging indicator.

To: dwight vickers who wrote (20889)	3/9/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

<<It was the "quality" companies that got slammed the worst in 1929 and 1973. We're talking 75, 80, even 90% here. And no, in many cases they did not come back. The businesses often did fine, but the stocks hit highs that weren't surpassed for decades. Some have still not surpassed those highs.>> What were some of the quality companies (in terms of balance sheet) that went down 75, 80, 90% and did not come back, or did not surpass their highs for decades, or have still not surpassed their highs ? I am not being sarcastic, I am curious to research their financial condition and P/Es during these falls to see if I can make comparisons to similar companies today (hopefully I don't own similar type companies !) <<A reading of history makes it difficult for me to be confident about todays "nifty fifty".>> There are definitely not 50 companies out there I want to own right now. <<Jesse Livermore bought those quality stocks when they were off 50% in 1930 and looked smart during the bounce. But the market bought at 50% off in 1930 eventually dropped another 78% from those levels by 1932. When it ended. there were no "long term investors". Just like at the end of every other bear market.>> What quality companies did he buy ? Did he buy them on margin, were the margin reforms enacted before the 78% drop by 1932 ? When it ended, someone had to own the shares. Did anyone subsequently make money on them ? You've raised my curiosity regarding these crashes, I want to know more. <<I'm not saying that's what we're facing. But "it can't happen today" for whatever the reason, is an imprudent investment policy. IMHO>> Whose policy is that ? Not mine. I said I have no sympathy for anyone who loses money (including myself) in the stock market. There has been plenty of time to score gains and plenty of time to bail with a profit. Anyone who is in is an entrepeneur, and must accept commensurate risk. I am not shorting the DOW or the S&P, and you can bet that if the market crashes 50%, I will be right in there buying as much as I can. I guess we'll all still have to shave and drink Coke. If I lose my ass, you can talk about me on the Internet, if there still is one. jww