To: jim kelley who wrote (33338 ) 3/9/1998 4:03:00 PM From: William C. Spaulding Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
I don't know what Dell's going to say in the conference call, but their news release on Friday doesn't seem as optimistic as the headline would suggest. It seems that they are experiencing weakness which they are attributing to seasonal variations. However, their quote "it's kind of business as usual" doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in their forecast. Also, remember that many times what starts as a warning sign turns ugly. After all, Compaq first reported inventory problems, then later on, dropped the bomb. But you judge for yourself: news.com They may want the conference call to be a secret so that the big boys who are heavily invested in the stock will have a chance to bail out at these stratospheric p/e's while the rest of the market is in the dark. The Wall Street Journal today reported that CompUSA will be missing expectations. This is another company that started with a few problems a few weeks ago and now is getting worse. Of course, I could be wrong about this. But Dell can't forecast PC sales even for a couple of weeks into the future. Nobody can. What may be seasonal weakness might turn into something more. So investors should recognize that there is short-term risk here, and as I said earlier, the computer stocks always tank sometime in March, especially by the 3rd week. So, let's see what happens. P.S. If you're a long-term investor who isn't on margin, you probably have nothing to worry about. I'm sure that by mid-April, the tech stocks will start climbing again, especially with the imminent arrival of Windows 98. Expect the worst and hope for the best!