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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4553)	3/9/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

>>In the US, I teach Management Science (my Ph.D. is in Operations Research) but I have a good knowledge of accounting and finance from my MBA/business days. I do teach Finance and Accounting in MBA programs overseas.<< So when will your students start shorting junk like AOL? ;-)

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4553)	3/9/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

>>One question: do you have any suggestions on any material that may help me to learn to read financial statements of banks and insurance companies? I am quite lost when it comes to these puppies.<< Pancho - I know nothing about the interpretation of insurance co statements, but I know something about bank statements. If you have a particular question about a particular bank's published statements, I can probably help a bit - tho it's been a long time and I'd need some time to study up on the various categories of non performing loans etc, etc.

To: Pancho Villa who wrote (4553)	3/13/1998 7:47:00 AM
From: Nevada	Respond to of 18691

Pancho- You have a better chance of understanding your brokers mark to market report than you do understanding either bank or insurance company financial reports. For banks, the major problem is, of course, the allowance for bad debt. This account and its corresponding bad debt expense account are ripe for manipulation. What is J P Morgan's real exposure in Latin America or S E Asia? If it is bad, are they likely to really tell you by adjusting the accounts? Better they figure some way to adjust it as we accountants say, "below the line" as an extraordinary item. This treatment, of course, will allow them to continue to show profits while they write down a significant asset. Small regional banks are more understandable as the main exposure is in local markets. There you can use the Lynch approach and kick the tires. I am negotiating with a local bank to build a house. They want 20% down (7.75% interest). I balked-" I can get it at 10% or 5% down around the corner" says I. "Then you will have to go there" they told me. Their reputation for servicing is such that they have as many takers of loans as they can handle. And at 20% down they have very little in losses. Unfortunately the stock is not publically traded! I know nothing of insurance company financials. Nevada