Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (2076)	3/9/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Ken, Ken, Ken. We've been over this. If they don't advertise, they don't grow and probably shrink. They are not like an ETrade where, once they have you, you aren't likely to leave. Moving your brokerage account is a pain in the a*, but you can buy a book from any bookseller. Perhaps advertising won't grow as fast as revenues. It's possible. But with deep pocketed competitors promoting their own online efforts, you really have no idea when or if the percentage of sales spent on advertising and promotion will decline. And remember, they now have 30,000 "associates" that they have to pay commissions to, one expanded and one all new distribution center to support (complete with employees), "product development" costs for all the new lines you think they will make you rich by selling (CDs and whatever else comes along that they think they can "leverage" their "brand" into). Oh, and since these other lines will have competition as well, even more ad dollars must be spent. I know you bulls have heard all this before and will probably dismiss it like every other cautionary or bearish argument, but I just want to be on record so I can say I told you so to Ron later. hahaha. Bob

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (2076)	3/10/1998 9:09:00 AM
From: doug doan	Respond to of 164684

Looking forward to your analysis I for one will welcome your study of AMZN's numbers. You seem to be the most bullish follower of AMZN and it would be very enlightening to know how you have crunched the numbers. Obvviously, I have spent some time with the quarterlies and come to a different conclusion. Couple of questions that I hope you can weave into your analysis: 1. Does the business model depend upon qtr-qtr 50%+ gains. 2. How and when do you see the company turning profitable? 3. Looks to me like an on-line price war for books is inevitable, do you agree? If not, can you tell us how AMZN will compete against others with the same product at a lower price. 4. BKS sales are growing very fast as well. Does that change your thinking? Would it if BKS qtr-Qtr sales showed faster growth that AMZN. 5. You seem to imply that AMZN is not yet fairly valued and instead has 4-5 times growth ahead. How do you square buying AMZN with expected profits of .01 in 1999 vs a thousand or more stocks hundreds of times those earnings? Point here is at what point will AMZN need to be valued on the PE. Will it ever? Look forward to reading your report.