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Gold/Mining/Energy : Crystallex (KRY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ally who wrote (6652)	3/11/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Ally	Respond to of 10836

I've been fiddling around evaluation on what KRY is worth with the La Christina stake. In its annual report, KRY claimed the total gold reserve estimate at 11.7 million ozs. Total number of shares (fully diluted) stands at 41 million. Assuming $75/oz earnings to shareholders (price of gold less production cost less expenses and after tax), the quick and rough mathematics are as follows: Potential Total Earnings = $75/oz x 11.7 = $877.5 Valuation = $877.5/41 = $21/shr Numbers are very rough, and do not take account of possible significant dilution of shares when KRY has to find a partner (perhaps PDG?) to mine the gold. If shares dilute, say 25%, valuation/shr drops to $17/shr. Of course, the low price of gold doesn't help. So, if we apply a discount ratio to the depressed industry it is now, say, 30%, then we get a valuation price of $12. What i'm trying to get at is to look past the Arsensio issue (which in my mind is no longer a problem), on a realistic price fully valued price for KRY stock, and giving consideration that all gold stocks are now in the dump. Other views/opinions people?