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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlienTech who wrote (2913)	3/10/1998 9:30:00 AM
From: LarryX-Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Looks like big gap up today. 40. Nice jump. Anybody want to guess today range? Thanks, Larry

To: AlienTech who wrote (2913)	3/10/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Toby Zidle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6317

You asked if I didn't think JBIL would be at $60 in 6 months. To tell you the truth, on April 9, 1997, JBIL's high was $24. Six months later, December 9, JBIL's high was $71 7/8, a virtual tripling. If you had asked then whether I thought JBIL in ten weeks would break $80, I'd have said 'it's a no-brainer, and probably over $100'. So what happened then? Ten weeks after $71 7/8, JBIL's low was $29 1/2!! OK, ultimately JBIL got to an end-Feb. high of $56 3/4. And now where are we? Closer to the low than the high! Analyzing this stock isn't so much a matter of risk/reward. It's a question of whether you have to go through Hell before you get to Heaven, not even knowing if Heaven exists. According to Second Opinion, JBIL's Beta is 1.43, surely one of the more volatile stocks in the investing universe. JBIL is a 'faith' stock -- just Keep the Faith, Baby. When you're on fire in Hell, faith is a scarce and precious commodity. You sound like a believer, Alien. Btw, as a matter of investing 'truth', you're wrong to say that if you're holding a stock, you only lose when you sell. Every day you hold a stock, you reaffirm a purchase decision associated with that stock. Today I hold JBIL at $41 and did not switch to TJMaxx at $41 (a new high for TJM). If, in 6 months JBIL is at $41 and TJM is at $82, I have lost money by that decision. (Only the IRS should be calling it 'even'.) It's called an 'opportunity cost'. Unrealized profits and losses are real profits and losses. If I choose to keep money in a loser that never moves and have 'dead' money, I need to reexamine my approach to investing. On the other hand, if I have decided that that loser has immediate potential such that I'd buy it if I didn't already own it, that's a positive assessment that tells me I should continue to hold. But to say I don't have a loss til I sell, won't meet any of my investment objectives. A digression above, I suppose. Keep the Faith, Alien! toby