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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (8729)	3/10/1998 10:47:00 AM
From: PAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Charles Pradilla, chief investment strategist at Cowen & Co.,said, while most of technology is getting beaten up, investors are just shifting their buying to still-safe names.:"A number of stocks just keep going up because people don't want to leave the market. America Online is up every day several points [because] people are saying, 'I don't care what the valuation is, if they hit the numbers, I want to be there because I want to be in the market, and I want to be in technology.' " Charles Padilla is making an observation. For a change there has been no upgrades or reiterate to buy internet stocks by analysts. Are they getting nosebleed at this pricey levels? The recent rally from chip stocks are typical of Wall Street actions which are against contrarian. When there is a sale at Nordtsrom or Macy's, people are rushing in. After the sale is over the store put back the higher price and people stop coming. The reverse is being done by common folks: currently there is a sale for INTC, CPQ, DELL etc. But people are dumping that stock to buy "blue chips" like AOL YHOO AMZN Preview Travel, Onsale etc. They rationalize: as long as they hit the numbers. INTC etc should hit the numbers as well if analysts keep lowering their estimates as they do on internet stocks. Do not be surprised if the recent rally is a sucker rally to get small investors in and then big funds are dumping their holdings. AOL has been having resistance at 126 level. Sanity will come back to WS.

To: Paul Merriwether who wrote (8729)	3/10/1998 11:01:00 AM
From: Yikes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

The difference between AOL and Yahoo, is that Yahoo has over 50 million users world wide and AOL has only 15 million. Have you looked at Yahoo lately? I mean, not as a search engine, but look at its content. It can draw you a map to your house, give you dedicated pages to current events, online chat room, and etc. AOL cannot compete. Period. Nobody is leaving Yahoo because it is FREE. Everyone is looking to leave AOL because its service is poor. I submit that AOL stock is now ridding on the coat tail of Yahoo. People who buy into Internet stocks buy AOL blindly along with Yahoo. But this quarter, I foreseea sudden slow down in AOL subscriber growth. Maybe even a decrease in "actual" subscriber base. (Those who decides to leave AOL now for MCI probably still counted as AOL users by AOL in this quarter.) When the subscriber decline is apparent, it will not be a 5 point drop, but a 15+ point drop in one day. Probably due to a earnings warning followed by several downgrades from analysts. Be smart, move your profit to CPQ or INTC while you can.