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Strategies & Market Trends : Brand Name Values and Turnarounds -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter O'Brien who wrote (18)	3/10/1998 11:10:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 82

Peter: thanks for the idea. TCB seems too expensive for me at current price. -g- But based on my past behavior, I'll be wanting to come back in an buy it when it's 20% higher. Paul Senior

To: Peter O'Brien who wrote (18)	6/6/1998 1:31:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 82

Hi Peter O'Brien. Well, howsa bouta recap of what's happening? Looks to me like your picks here are doing very well (by my standards anyway -g-). (Note-- long, rambling thoughts follow -g-) TCB - is close to its high. Congrats. if you still own it! ATXA - just up a tad from my price (previous post--and I'm still holding); up a goodly % from where you recommended it though. (Congrats. again!) BUT--- the very good news is the extremely bullish article in today's Barron's. Just fabulous potential for its new electronic pad it seems --- and a very undervalued stock as determined by one fund manager, Mark Boyar. After today's Barron's article it will be very interesting to see how the stock trades on Monday. (Aside: I've read Mark Boyar's recommendations for a couple of decades-- he is very thorough, very analytical (business value to stock price fundamentalist), very sharp, very disciplined (buys and HOLDS), often (IMO) very, very contrarian --- in short-- one heck of a stock picker. I see now he's a fund manager---must pay a lot better than being an analyst -g-. Anyway, I coulda made a lot of money if I had the understanding to buy and the patience to hold his picks. ATXA is a big holding in his fund now. This is a very good sign of confidence that there's good value in ATXA at current price-- again that's all IMO of course.) I still own Gucci (GUC). I show a small % profit. This is subject to change as the stock seems to have wide swings. Plusses are strong management team (as mentioned by analysts/writers --- I've never personally met any of the management), desirable (possibly) brand name. Negatives-- the Asian contagion is really hurting GUC I'd guess (the Big Issue); and as an up-scale retailer, their stuff can go in/out of fashion which maybe influences whether investors want to own stock in such a business. Oil Dri. That stock I jokingly said I thought I might buy, but wouldn't -- still has gone nowhere or down. Now it looks close to book value and maybe worth a second look -- although seems still not right price (for a value investment). Two stocks we (I) missed over past 3-6 months: Tommy Hilfiger. It was selling at its lows --about 35-- and pe about 10-11 (I seem to recall)before earnings announcement. Got scared away when I read SI post that maybe earnings weren't going to be so great; Abercrombie was taking share away because Abercrombie was the college kids' favorite - Tommy being just too ubiquitous. (I like that word! Why write "everywhere" when I don't have to? -g-). Earnings came in good as usual though; and --in hindsight-- TOM stock was too low regardless. Disappointments were already built into the stock price; it may be true about Abercrombie- but TOM's presence is formidable and backed with strong product and good marketing and advertising. TOM stock went on to double in about 5-6 months. The second -- and there may still be some turnaround value to it --is Nine West (NIN). Primarily mid-price women's shoes. They too, are a company with a presence in every mall it seems. Stocks of shoe retailers and some shoe manufacturers do seem to be rising lately - and NIN has also turned around from its lows. I've looked briefly at the NIN financials and thought about their business model -- very hard for me to step up to it at today's price -- think maybe I'm a little late. That's it. Paul Senior