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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (4719)	3/11/1998 1:22:00 AM
From: Bald Man from Mars	Respond to of 18691

<<I also covered some other shorts and put it back into longs on tech/internet stocks. (Still short AVNT, ENML). I thought this was an insane market, but I'm starting to think I am the only one who is insane for not running with the bull market. I will be waiting for the turnaround and ride it down. The drop won't be over in a day. I hope.>> Those that are flexible will survive, and you look like a good surviver... Next year, should we as a group of SI contributors to go 'run with the bull' - the real run with the bull.

To: Dr. Seuss who wrote (4719)	3/11/1998 8:25:00 AM
From: Nevada	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I read an academic article a while back (couldn't find it this morning) that pertains to your (our) dilemma. It said that investment trends, regardless of the untenability of the underlying reasoning, can last for decades. The greater fool market that we are in works fine and reinforces the actions of the greater fools as long as there is one more. Intrinsic valuation (price is equal to the NPV of the future cash flows) works best in the very long run but we may all be dead before that last fool enters the last buy order. Luckily the musical chair game stops for individual stocks as well as markets. This hopefully allows us to break even or even make a small profit until the big music stops. And do not forget that it is those fools that allow us to earn our money. Hard eraned money it is too.