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Gold/Mining/Energy : GEAC.....Canadian best kept secret -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sans Souci who wrote (234)	3/11/1998 1:34:00 AM
From: Sans Souci	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571

Well, after some rough number crunching... Looking at the past two quarters: Q2-98 Q3-98 Q-Q %change revenues 158.8 174.2 9.6 net income 40.1 44.8 11.7 basic earnings 0.67 0.75 11.9 f/dil earnings 0.63 0.70 11.0 Apparently, Q3 (the latest) is seasonally strong, so, for the next few quarters, if one assumes further growth, but offset by a seasonally weaker period (??? maybe not), then use a rate of $0.70/sh/qtr earnings for the next few quarters --> thus: 4 X 70 = $2.80/yr est. earnings Thus, over the next half year to a year, some reasonable price targets would be: @ P/E of 25X --> $70/sh target @ P/E of 30X --> $84/sh target @ P/E of 35X --> $98/sh target IMO, 30X would be quite reasonable (if not low) for a growth company like this, and thus a target of $84/sh is arrived at. If they make an acquisition, and its perceived to be a good one, then the multiple could go up, as people will assume Geac can pull off another D&B-type turnaround.