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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WTMHouston who wrote (10285)	3/10/1998 10:44:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 13456

For anyone still investing in disk drives, from the Singapore Business Times: SINGAPORE Slow 10% growth in disk drive shipments seen US research firm advises drive makers to cut build plans drastically by 15-20% By Jennifer Lien ROWTH in hard disk drive shipments is likely to slow to 10 per cent this year -- easily the industry's weakest performance in years, an industry research firm said on Monday. Silicon Valley-based TrendFocus Inc's latest forecast, made after last week's profit warnings by Intel Corp and Compaq Computer, compares with its earlier 1998 forecast of about 13 per cent growth in disk drive unit shipments. Other industry researchers have predicted between 18 and 20 per cent unit growth. Last year, some 130 million disk drives were shipped, a 23 per cent jump from 1996. A 10 per cent rise in unit shipments would equal about 13 or 14 million more units shipped in 1998, and half of this "should come from adjusting inventory to normal levels", the firm said. But TrendFocus estimates that existing disk drive manufacturing capacity exceeds current demand by between 35 and 50 per cent, especially at top three makers Seagate, Quantum and Western Digital. Production plans also continue to be some 25 million units, or 18 per cent, more than expected 1998 demand. While the top three are struggling with overcapacity, other disk drive companies such as Maxtor, Fujitsu and IBM have been gaining market share. These upcoming players continue to boost production plans, thus adding to the capacity glut. Worsening the situation are Intel and Compaq's Q1 profit warnings last week, which indicate slower-than-expected Q1 PC sales, damaging prospects for a first-half disk drive industry recovery. The firm estimates that distribution channel inventories of disk drives, including disk drives within finished PCs, at over 10 weeks for desktop drives, and "over one full quarter" for server drives. With slower growth in storage demand, the use of fewer components in each disk drive, and the Asian economic crisis sapping PC buying power, the industry is "mired in arguably the worst market adjustment in more than 10 years", said TrendFocus. The firm advises disk drive makers to dramatically cut build plans by 15 to 20 per cent. And it reckons that at least five disk drive makers could "make profound changes in their respective cost structures by downsizing, closing factories, streamlining operations, and slowing incremental investment".

To: WTMHouston who wrote (10285)	3/11/1998 1:20:00 AM
From: dmccoach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

Troy, Dmccoach 14 PCTL Lng 03-10op 7.1875 7.25 -0.0625 -0.87 - Hey I think your doing a great job too... But in reference to Huck Finn, I think I've been white washed... If I opened my position today (tuesday) at 7.1875 and PCTL closed today at 7.25, how did I end up in the "not-so-fortunate" camp? Thanks puddinhead! Dan

To: WTMHouston who wrote (10285)	3/11/1998 1:20:00 AM
From: Alan Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

* 1 STOCK - 1 WEEK * SCMM short 3-11-98 open There appears to be a lot of manipulation going on with this stock (right, so what else is new?) See the SCMM thread for more details ...

To: WTMHouston who wrote (10285)	3/11/1998 2:39:00 AM
From: Jacky AY	Respond to of 13456

* 1 stock 1 week * Short MU 3/11/98 open. Fundamentals really suck for Micron; they have to sell DRAM below cost to remain competitive with Korean and Japanese players. Technicals don't look good neither; everything looks bad. Company will announce earning next week; the company is rumored to miss by a bunch.

To: WTMHouston who wrote (10285)	3/11/1998 7:23:00 AM
From: Zakrosian	Respond to of 13456

* 1 STOCK - 1 WEEK * LOR long open 3/11 This week's earnings seemed to surprise many of the stock's enthusiastic supporters and could attract a lot of attention. Long term they sure seem to be more attractive than a lot of companies selling for 4 to 5 times their price, and yesterday's drop could result in some buying today.