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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hank who wrote (6039)	3/11/1998 5:19:00 AM
From: Sowbug	Respond to of 19080

On what basis do you predict an upside earnings surprise? Or is it just a wild guess? I think those of us looking for a surprise (I'm a long-term holder but also trading right along with you) assume that Oracle isn't going to let last quarter's downside surprise happen again, so they're going to "err" (i.e., guide analysts) on the conservative side. I'm sure others on this thread have more fundamental reasons, but that's one opinion.

To: Hank who wrote (6039)	3/11/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: voyager.ed	Respond to of 19080

Hank, If you read this thread for a while, it becomes clear that there is a constant conflict between the longs and the shorts. First, my view on earnings is that 4-5 weeks ago Ellison took his shot to the world by announcing that last quarter was a blip, and that this quarter growth (US) would be 25%. He has not retracted that statement. Second, there has been no earnings warning, in fact, last week Lane said there would be no surprise to cause the stock harm. Many took that to mean that ORCL would be on the estimate number. I took it to me only that there would be no negative surprise. Third, there have been several positive stories, statements, etc. on this thread and the stock has been very strong, even in 2 big down days. And last, I think Ellison is seething from last quarter, and while I think making the number is probably good enough, I don't think he will be satisfied with that - he wants to make a cannonball (splash) not just 'meet' expectations. Of course, all this IMHO. Anyway, we'll all know tomorrow. regards, Ed