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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jack Whitley who wrote (20939)	3/11/1998 8:38:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 42771

Glad you've decided to go educate yourself. Many companies are still kicking. But I'm sure you will find that they weren't as solid as the "nifty fifty" is today. Certainly their valuations weren't as high. Certainly the country wasn't in as good of shape as it is today. The Gov't. must have been more than 6 trillion in debt. We probably had over capacity, competitive devaluations, falling earnings, record price to book ratios, record peak earnings cycles P/E ratios, record debt to GDP ratios. Etc., etc., etc. Oh wait, they didn't have most of those problems then. They must not have had low inflation and low interest rates. Oh wait, yes they did. But of course they didn't have "The New Paradigm" then, did they? Oh wait, yes they did! They just called it things like "Permanent Plateau of Prosperity". As Prof. Irving Fisher of Harvard did in 1929. So good luck in proving that things were much different for companies and economies at the end of every other speculative cycle in history, compared to what they are today. You did say you would buy stocks hand over fist when the market dropped 50%, didn't you? How does one do that if they weren't smart enough to sell stocks before they dropped? Or short on the way down. Or God forbid be holding cash during a " New Paradigm". Congratulations in advance. As far as the public making money in the stock market. Read up on that too. See how many wealthy investors you can find that made money all through the 20's, 30's, 40's, 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's. There are two types who did, Wall Street insiders and...................... Whoops, only one type. My father made a lot of money buying and holding AT&T as an employee. Still holding and probably won't sell much before the next decline, sadly. I know a few of those guys. Bought and held company stock. I know next to no one who made money investing as people are investing today. And I have literally talked finances with thousands of people over the last 20 years. The successful ones made money by saving and earning interest. At least until 1994. Please don't tell me about Uncle Harry who made a fortune. Chasing stocks that are over valued? Chasing for the latest "Best Mutual Fund For The Next 12 Months"? Check and see how many of those Mutual Funds hold virtually the same issues. Just as they all held NOVL as a top 5 position in 1993. Marxist? Hardly. Actually vote Libertarian. Too conservative to vote for a Bush or a Dole. Populist? I like the way that sounds. Just wish this was going to turn out better for the average guy. I also would like to keep these kind of point/counterpoint posts off the board. I made the mistake of thinking there was a 5% chance you were really looking for information rather than defending all the money you've made in the last 3 years. Dwight