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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Writer who wrote (1467)	3/11/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

NW: I know that it is a popular theory to think that WNP and Nextband will sit on their licenses and do nothing. Someone on this thread compared this strategy to developers sitting on undeveloped land. However, what is not mentioned is that these developers are usually waiting until a change of zoning. Here, the LMDS licenses can be used right away. Teleport's takeover by ATT was valued at several billion dollars. The current market value of WCII and TGNT is around 1.5 to 2 billion dollars (even though TGNT is still in the earliest stages of its development), with values at maturity which may be 3 or 4 times that big. Given these reference points, why would WNP and Nextband do nothing? Their choice is: a) do nothing and sell the spectrum for about $700M or $800M to the RBOCs 3 years from now, or b) build a business and be worth a few billions. Which one would you rather choose? Another way to look at it is that the entire LMDS segment will probably have about $1B-$2B revenues by 2005. At about 3 times sales (to take into account strong growth prospects) this would give a nationwide LMDS business a valuation of $3B-$6B. This option is too attractive to be ignored by WNP and Nextband. I must admit I am still unhappy that the FCC tilted the rules so strongly in favor of the big boys, but at least, they did not splurge on their licenses, and will have plenty of money to buy LMDS equipment later. The key for CVUs right now is to get some financing to roll out 2-way LMDS services. Once it gets over this hump, the long term outlook will look good (in fact excellent if CVUS can hook up with WNP). As I posted on the Yahoo thread 2-way MMDS is not a credible threat to 2-way LMDS. Best regards, Bernard Levy