To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (1696 ) 3/11/1998 2:06:00 AM From: Chris McConnel Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 2319
>>> Doesn't anyone want to talk about GTIS' prospects or lack thereof? <<< Yes, I'd like to, as matter of fact. Glad you brought up. First off, i'm still amazed and baffled that this stock has not hit 4 since announcing the 4qtr loss. Can anyone explain to me why this accounting change is viewed as a good thing (if is was not viewed as good thing why did the stock go up after the announcement)? The only good thing i can see, GT is owning up to not fully disclosing the extent of their expenses. I mean, hey, does anybody remember seeing "Unexpensed Prepaid Royalties" anywhere on their quarterly statements in 1995, 1996 or 1997? If they had been expensing the prepaid royalties all long, it would have, IMO, significantly brought down the EPS and raised the PE. Now, going forward, since they are expensing all prepaid royalties as they occur, won't it lower the EPS? I just don't think GTIS has been as profitable as we were led to believe. Also, are we sure that they have fully written off ALL the unexpensed prepaid royalties. Reading the Merrill Lynch reports, i'm not so sure. Second, how significantly is Gathering of Developers going to change the economics of games development and publishing. If G.O.D. is able to convince enough developers they will earn more money on their games, publishing them through G.O.D., will GTIS by able to find enough content to keep it's distribution mechanism in full operation? And if GT is unable to sign up enough developers, will they be able to build up enough internal studios quickly enough to fill the void. Even if G.O.D. does not land all the developers, the ones that do sign with GT will be able to use G.O.D. as leverage to negotiate better contracts with GT and other publishers. This could hurt GT bottom line. Also, if G.O.D. is offering the best royalties, will they be able to pick and choose only the cream of the crop games and reject the ones with lesser market potential, leaving GT with all the less profitable games. - Chris